ETH Eyes a Return to $1,225 to Target $1,250 on Light Trading Volumes

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) joined the broader crypto market in positive territory, with BTC ending a three-day losing streak.
• The pair moved within tight ranges throughout the session, with a lack of crypto events and lower trading volumes, delivering modest gains.
• Market conditions were bearish this morning, though lower trading volumes continued to leave the pair within tight ranges.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.08% on Saturday. Following a 0.16% gain on Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,221. ETH ended the day at $1,200 for the fifth consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to a mid-morning low of $1,214. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,210, ETH rose to an early evening high of $1,228. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,228, ETH eased back to sub-$1,220 before ending the day at $1,221.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.37%. Reversing a 0.21% loss from Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,864. Notably, BTC failed to revisit $17,000 for the fourth consecutive session while ending a three-day losing streak.

A bullish session saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,802 to a late afternoon high of $16,891. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,922, BTC eased back to end the day at $16,864.

Holiday Trading Volumes Leave ETH and BTC in Tight Ranges

On Saturday, there were no crypto events to provide direction. The lack of news stories left investors to consider the US economic indicators from Friday. Softer inflation and weak personal spending numbers supported a less aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory.

However, Fed uncertainty will likely linger with the US unemployment rate at 3.7%, well below the Fed mandate of 5.0%.

Regulatory risk remains another crypto headwind. This week, Gary Gensler talked about taking a more aggressive stance on crypto firms that fail to meet securities regulations.

Today, a lack of external market forces will leave BTC and ETH in the hands of the broader crypto market. However, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for events that could trigger a price move. FTX updates and regulatory chatter continue to flood the crypto wires.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 0.10% to $1,219. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,224 before falling to a low of $1,215.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,221 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,228 and the Friday high of $1,228. A return to $1,220 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to deliver support for a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,235. The Third Major Resistance level (R3) sits at $1,249.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,214 in play. However, barring an event-driven sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,200. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,207 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,193.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,227. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 100-day EMA ($1,227) and R1 ($1,228) would support a run at R2 ($1,235) to target the 200-day EMA ($1,246). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,218) would bring S1 ($1,214) into play.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down by 0.15% to $16,839. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,874 before falling to a low of $16,828.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $16,852 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,903. A BTC return to $16,900 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,941 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,030.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,814 in play. Barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,763 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,674.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, BTC sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,884. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day ($16,884) would support a breakout from R1 ($16,903) to target R2 ($16,941) and the 100-day ($16,947). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($16,884) would leave BTC under pressure.