ETH Eyes a Return to $1,280 to Give the Bulls a Look at $1,350

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) joined the broader crypto market in negative territory.
• Uncertainty towards the Fed and the US economic outlook tested investor sentiment on Saturday, with regulatory chatter another factor for investors to consider.
• However, market conditions improved this morning, with investors hopeful of a Fed pivot, the US avoiding an economic recession, and a settlement in the SEC v Ripple case.

Ethereum (ETH) slid by 4.24% on Saturday. Reversing a 1.49% gain from Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,241. Despite the bearish session, ETH visited $1,300 for the third time in four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,309. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,307 before sliding to a late low of $1,236. The extended sell-off saw ETH fall through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,275 and the Second Major Support level (S2) at $1,255 to end the day at $1,241.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.18%. Reversing a 0.65% gain from Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,889. BTC visited $17,000 for the fourth consecutive day while wrapping up the day at sub-$17,000 for the second time in four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $17,144. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,197, BTC slid to a late low of $16,865. BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,886 before ending the day at $16,889.

BTC and ETH Weekend Market Drivers Send Bearish Signals

Investors continued to react to this week’s US economic indicators, with the Jobs Report and inflation supporting a more hawkish Fed. However, while a contraction in the manufacturing sector would put pressure on the Fed to pivot, fears of a US economic recession would also test buyer appetite.

As investors consider Fed monetary policy and the US economic outlook, the rise in regulatory risk remains a crypto headwind. Talk of BTC being a commodity and ETH a security likely contributed to the ETH slide to sub-$1,250.

While market conditions improved this morning, downside risks remain. In the final hour, we expect the NASDAQ mini to influence, barring a material crypto event.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 1.76% to $1,263. A bullish morning saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,240 to a high of $1,264.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,262 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,288 and the Saturday high of $1,309. A return to $1,300 would signal a bullish afternoon session.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,335 and $1,350 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R2) sits at $1,408.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,215 into play. However, barring an extended crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,200 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,189. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,116.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,246. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, after Friday’s bullish cross, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A breakout from the 200-day EMA ($1,277) would support a move through R1 ($1,288) to target R2 ($1,335) and $1,350. However, a fall through the 50-day ($1,246) and 100-day ($1,243) EMAs would bring S1 into play ($1,215).

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.62% to $16,993. A bullish morning saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,885 to a high of $17,073.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,067 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,966 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,067 and the Saturday high of $17,144. A move through the morning high of $17,073 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires should be market-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,245 and the current-week high of $17,335. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,524.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,788 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,687 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,408.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $16,874. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A move through R1 ($17,067) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($17,245) and the 200-day EMA ($17,426). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($16,874) would bring the 50-day EMA ($16,800) and S1 ($16,788) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would signal an extended sell-off.