ETH Eyes a Return to $1,280 to Give the Bulls a Look at $1,350

Updated: Dec 4, 2022, 07:11 UTC•5min read

ETH and BTC found support this morning. However, failure to revisit early highs would leave the NASDAQ mini to influence in the final hour of the session.

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ETH and BTC - technical analysis - FX Empire

Key Insights:

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) joined the broader crypto market in negative territory.
Uncertainty towards the Fed and the US economic outlook tested investor sentiment on Saturday, with regulatory chatter another factor for investors to consider.
However, market conditions improved this morning, with investors hopeful of a Fed pivot, the US avoiding an economic recession, and a settlement in the SEC v Ripple case.

Ethereum (ETH) slid by 4.24% on Saturday. Reversing a 1.49% gain from Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,241. Despite the bearish session, ETH visited $1,300 for the third time in four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,309. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,307 before sliding to a late low of $1,236. The extended sell-off saw ETH fall through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,275 and the Second Major Support level (S2) at $1,255 to end the day at $1,241.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.18%. Reversing a 0.65% gain from Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,889. BTC visited $17,000 for the fourth consecutive day while wrapping up the day at sub-$17,000 for the second time in four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $17,144. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,197, BTC slid to a late low of $16,865. BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,886 before ending the day at $16,889.

BTC and ETH Weekend Market Drivers Send Bearish Signals

Investors continued to react to this week’s US economic indicators, with the Jobs Report and inflation supporting a more hawkish Fed. However, while a contraction in the manufacturing sector would put pressure on the Fed to pivot, fears of a US economic recession would also test buyer appetite.

As investors consider Fed monetary policy and the US economic outlook, the rise in regulatory risk remains a crypto headwind. Talk of BTC being a commodity and ETH a security likely contributed to the ETH slide to sub-$1,250.

While market conditions improved this morning, downside risks remain. In the final hour, we expect the NASDAQ mini to influence, barring a material crypto event.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 1.76% to $1,263. A bullish morning saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,240 to a high of $1,264.

ETHUSD 041222 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,262 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,288 and the Saturday high of $1,309. A return to $1,300 would signal a bullish afternoon session.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,335 and $1,350 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R2) sits at $1,408.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,215 into play. However, barring an extended crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,200 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,189. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,116.

ETH resistance levels in play above the pivot.

ETHUSD 041222 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,246. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, after Friday’s bullish cross, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A breakout from the 200-day EMA ($1,277) would support a move through R1 ($1,288) to target R2 ($1,335) and $1,350. However, a fall through the 50-day ($1,246) and 100-day ($1,243) EMAs would bring S1 into play ($1,215).

ETHUSD 041222 4 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.62% to $16,993. A bullish morning saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,885 to a high of $17,073.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,067 before easing back.

BTCUSD 041222 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,966 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,067 and the Saturday high of $17,144. A move through the morning high of $17,073 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires should be market-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,245 and the current-week high of $17,335. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,524.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,788 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,687 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,408.

BTC resistance levels in play above the pivot.

BTCUSD 041222 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $16,874. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A move through R1 ($17,067) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($17,245) and the 200-day EMA ($17,426). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($16,874) would bring the 50-day EMA ($16,800) and S1 ($16,788) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would signal an extended sell-off.