ETH Return to $1,900 Hinged on ETF and SEC Appeal News

Bob Mason

After a bullish Tuesday, ETH was back in the red this morning. Slow progress toward a spot ETH ETF market and SEC appeal threats are headwinds.

ETH Technical Analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • ETH joined the broader market in positive territory on Tuesday, gaining 1.53% to end the day at $1,856.
  • ETF-related chatter and US banking sector downgrades provide support, while SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple ruling capped the upside.
  • The shorter-term technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $1,900.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.53% on Tuesday. Reversing a 0.05% loss from Monday, ETH ended the day at $1,856. Significantly, ETH broke through the $1,850 handle for the first time in five sessions.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.05% to $1,855. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,861 before easing back.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering below the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA ($1,862) while holding above the 200-day ($1,788), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, a bullish price signal.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 48.65 reading reflects moderately bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,788). However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,862) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.

ETH Daily Chart sends mixed price signals.
ETHUSD 090823 Daily Chart

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,900. ETH sits below the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band and the 200-day EMA ($1,862). However, ETH held above the 50-day EMA ($1,842), sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the 200-day EMA would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring the $1,815 – $1,795 support band into play.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 62.61 sends bullish price signals, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals a breakout from the 200-day EMA and the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.

4-Hourly Chart sends bullish near-term price signals.
ETHUSD 090823 4 Hourly Chart

ETF-Related Chatter and US Banking Sector Woes Mute Staking Stats

It was a busy Tuesday session, with ETF-related chatter providing much-needed support.

The SEC deadline to approve or decline the ARK Invest spot BTC ETF is August 13. While Cathie Wood of ARK Invest expects the SEC to break the deadline, the Ark Invest CEO expects the SEC to deliver multiple approvals. Approvals should lead to a significant influx of sticky institutional money.

The SEC approval of one, some, or all of the spot BTC ETF applications would open the door to a flood of spot ETH ETF applications, a bullish price scenario.

News of Moody’s cutting the credit ratings of several small to medium-sized US banks and threatening to downgrade larger US banks on weaker profitability and liquidity also provided support.

However, SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling left ETH short of $1,900. SEC Chair Gary Gensler threw ETH into the crypto securities basket earlier this year, leaving ETH sensitive to SEC scrutiny of the digital asset space.

Staking Statistics Signals Improve on the Tuesday Rally

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 26,176 ETH on Monday to 41,792 on Tuesday. Despite the increase, staking inflows remained below recent trends.

Staking inflows remain below recent trends.
Staking Inflows 090823

The overnight withdrawal profile was bullish, with ETH principal withdrawals at normal levels after a brief spike. Withdrawal projections for the morning session remain bullish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will stay at normal withdrawal levels.

Withdrawal profile is bullish.
Withdrawal Profile 090823

On Tuesday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 20,760 ETH surplus ($38.01 million), up 111% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 26,760 versus withdrawals of 5,990 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 62,580 ETH, equivalent to approximately $116.04 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.72%, down 0.17% over 24 hours. The downward trend in staking APR and the upward trend in total pending withdrawals are bearish price signals.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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