Ethereum Bull Run in Doubt as ETH Price Metric Flashes 50% Crash Warning

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has surged from approximately $1,385 in April to a peak of over $2,730, a rally driven by the Pectra upgrade and easing US-China trade tensions.

These gains have propelled ETH above the average cost basis of many holders. Historical patterns suggest that such rapid ascents often precede pullbacks, potentially revisiting previous support levels.

Ethereum Price Eyes $1,222 in Max Pain Scenario

The average cost basis represents the average price at which investors acquired their ETH holdings.

When the market price rises above this average, many investors find themselves in profit. This scenario can lead to increased selling pressure as holders decide to realize gains, potentially causing the price to pull back toward the average cost basis.

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that the average cost basis for ETH holders varies by wallet size:

• 100–1,000 ETH: $2,225
• 1,000–10,000 ETH: $2,196
• 10,000–100,000 ETH: $1,994
• Over 100,000 ETH: $1,222

These average cost levels often act as psychological support zones. If the price retraces to these levels and holds, it can instill confidence in the market, encouraging new buying and setting the stage for the next upward move.

However, if the price falls below these levels, it may signal a shift in market sentiment, leading to further declines. In the worst-case scenario, as a result, ETH’s price can decline to as low as $1,222, down approximately 50% from current levels.

ETH Faces Selling Pressure Near Key Moving Average

The bearish onchain analysis comes as Ether struggles to close below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart.

ETH/USD briefly surged above the EMA, only to face a selloff. Additional downside pressure came from the symmetrical triangle’s lower trendline. If the price consolidates below the resistance confluence for too long, its likelihood of correcting toward the 200-period EMA (blue) at around $$1,585 will increase.

That is around the realized price targets discussed above, and is also near the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement line at $1,500.

Conversely, retaking the 50-period EMA and the triangle’s lower trendline as support may invalidate the bearish setup. Instead, ETH’s price will likely attempt upside moves toward the triangle’s upper trendline near $3,800, aligning with the 2.618 Fib line.