The current price action of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is starting to resemble a technical structure that previously marked a major cycle low and preceded a sharp upside reversal.
ETH is Mirroring 200% Rally Fractal From 2025
On the weekly chart, ETH has returned to a rising long-term trendline that has defined its broader bull-market structure since 2022.
The same trendline acted as a base in early 2025, when Ethereum briefly broke below key moving averages, triggered forced selling, and then reclaimed support before launching a rally of more than 200% over the following months.
That setup is reappearing.
ETH has again slipped below short-term and mid-term exponential moving averages, while price compression near the rising trendline suggests sellers may be losing momentum.
Historically, similar breakdowns that failed to follow through on the downside have marked exhaustion points rather than the start of prolonged bear phases.
Momentum indicators reinforce the comparison. Weekly RSI has cooled toward historically oversold zones without entering the kind of sustained bearish regime seen in 2022.
The 2025 rebound began only after ETH absorbed sell pressure near long-term support and reclaimed key averages. A similar reclaim would be required again to confirm any bullish continuation.
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See all Ethereum forecastsETH’s MVRV Bands Hint at a Local Bottom Forming
Ethereum’s on-chain positioning reinforces the idea that the market is closer to a stabilization phase than the start of a fresh downtrend.
The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands show ETH trading near the lower end of its historical valuation range, hovering around the –0.5σ band and approaching the realized price.
In past cycles, this zone has consistently acted as a demand region rather than a distribution area, reflecting periods when a large share of holders sat near breakeven, and downside selling pressure began to fade.
Notably, ETH has not spent sustained time below the –1.0σ band, which historically marked deep capitulation events such as the 2018 and 2020 washouts.
Instead, the current structure resembles mid-cycle resets seen in late 2022 and early 2025, when prices compressed around realized value before reversing higher.
From a behavioral perspective, trading near realized price often signals reduced incentive for aggressive selling, as losses are already realized and marginal sellers diminish.
