XRP (XRP) has plummeted by 12% in the past 7 days as market sentiment continues to be sour following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for the top seat at the Federal Reserve.
The native asset of the XRP Ledger currently sits at $1.40 and has found strong resistance at $1.45 since the beginning of the Asian session on late Sunday.
Although trading volumes have subsided lately, on-chain metrics show that whales could be getting ready to dump XRP again once it recovers a bit.
Data from Santiment shows that XRP’s exchange inflows have been spiking since the beginning of February. The 30-day moving average for this particular metric has spiked from 6.6 million tokens to a peak of 10.7 million for a 62% increase during the first 7 days of the month.
Exchange Inflows (30D MA) – Source: Santiment
Exchange inflows indicate that tokens have been moved from cold wallets to exchange wallets, as the latter are the most liquid alternative. Hence, the best place to get the best price possible.
Historically, these spikes have been followed by a continuation of the prevailing trend, which, in this case, is a heavy downtrend.
The metric has already started to decline, meaning that the dump may have already started. The tipping point and a potential confirmation of this sell signal would come if the selling pressure accelerates after XRP recovers a bit.
We saw this pattern play out in October and November last year. Exchange inflows increased significantly, as indicated in the charts. As the price recovered, whales dumped XRP, pushing the price to lower areas just a few days after.
The $1.55 level seems to be the key area to watch right now, as this was the token’s former lower low in the daily chart, making it the most relevant structural level for XRP for the time being.
A heavily oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently sitting at 17, favors a technical bounce for the token. This could be exactly what whales are expecting right now — a “dead cat bounce” to keep dumping XRP.
XRP/USDT 4H Chart – Source: TradingView
A short position above $1.55 could yield the best result if this thesis plays out as expected. We already saw significant pushback once XRP got to this level on February 6. The market may retest this area to find the necessary liquidity to trigger the next leg down for the token.
If that happens, we could see XRP dropping back to $1.15 once again. This area produced a strong bounce recently, and could be considered the most likely bottom for this cycle as momentum and sentiment readings have hit extremes.
Wednesday and Friday will be important days for the market as jobs and inflation data from January will be released, potentially setting the stage for a big move in the price of cryptocurrencies.
Lower than expected inflation favors a bullish outlook for this asset class despite the latest wave of selling, as it could prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected, especially if the economy is performing well.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.