Ethereum Price News: ETH Could Revisit Its April 2025 Lows

Ethereum (ETH) broke below a key support at $1,800 on Friday, setting the stage for a stronger correction that could push it down to its April 2025 lows.

Market sentiment remains heavily depressed as analysts’ expectations concerning the macroeconomic landscape have worsened.

Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch survey shows a significant change in the consensus estimate for interest rates in the United States this year.

Earlier in 2026, the baseline scenario for interest rate was that the Federal Reverse would execute one or two cuts before the year ended.

However, President Trump’s hostile rhetoric on tariffs and the subsequent bombing of Iran changed the narrative entirely. Now, the odds of an interest rate hike this year appear to have increased beyond 50% for September, as inflation is getting out of hand and oil prices remain high.

This is bad news for cryptos at a point when market sentiment was already heavily depressed. The Fear and Greed Index just swung to Extreme Fear, indicating a strong risk-off move following last week’s big drop.

Key On-Chain Metric Drops to Lowest Level Since April 2025

We have been tracking an on-chain metric that was quite relevant to identify the last cycle bottom for the top altcoin.

This metric is called the MVRV Ratio and it tracks the relationship between the market value of all ETH tokens in circulation and their realized value – that is, the price at which they were bought.

During bearish cycles, this ratio turns negative. Right now, at -43%, the metric is as depressed as it was back in April 2025, when ETH hit bottom at $1,400.

That said, this is not the lowest that the metric has gone in previous cycles, as it fell to -62% in June 2022, back when FTX collapsed and interest rates were rising.

The scenario right now looks more similar to 2022 than 2025. Hence, we might see ETH dropping even further to $1,400.

Sadly, ETH broke a long-dated buy signal in the weekly chart that featured 100% win rate. We had been tracking this signal for months but ETH invalidated the pattern as it made a new cycle low last week.

This was the first time in 8 years that the price fell below its previous low after this buy signal was triggered. This can be a strong indication that market sentiment is even more depressed than we initially thought.

Last week, Michael Saylor dumped BTC for the first time since 2022, while Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, decided to dump many of his long-dated positions in top altcoins. This kind of capitulation can either mark the beginning of the next bull market or indicate structural weakness in the crypto market.

ETH’s Retest of $1,800 Seems Likely

Heading to the daily chart, we can see that ETH just bounced off $1,550 but the token is far from being out of the woods yet.

We expect a retest of the $1,800 former support from below over the next couple of days. If the price action rejects a move above that level, the odds of a drop to $1,400 would increase dramatically.

This could also create room for a short position that could yield a 3x return if the stop price is set right above $1,900 and the target near that $1,400 mark.