Ethereum Price Prediction: Drop to $1,800 Still Likely Despite Rebound

Ethereum (ETH) bulls have managed to keep the price above $2,000 today, but the odds favor a bearish outlook in the mid-term as, once again, sellers showed up after ETH hit a key resistance.

The top altcoin has accumulated a 3.4% gain in the past 7 days. However, trading volumes have subsided a bit, indicating that the strength of this buying spree could be fading.

As we have highlighted in previous Ethereum price predictions, the $2,150 has been the most relevant resistance for ETH in the near-term, and continues to be based on the latest price action.

After three days of rallying, the top altcoin retreated strongly right after hitting this mark, posting a 4% loss yesterday as a result.

This supply zone has acted as a ceiling for the token multiple times in the past, and has only been broken once, on February 16, before the situation in Iran got out of hand.

Inflation Fears Rise as Oil Hits $113

Investors remain heavily concerned about the impact of higher oil prices on the U.S. economy. Analysts no longer expect that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, as the prospect of higher inflation via an increase in energy costs is getting more and more real.

Yesterday, the price of the West Texas Intermediate rose to $113 as President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next couple of weeks. These are the highest prices on record since 2022, back when the crypto market tanked as well.

Lower interest rates are critical to improve the performance of risky assets in the near term. As macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, the odds of a recovery for cryptocurrencies vanish.

However, we do believe that we could be nearing this cycle’s bottom. In ETH’s case, as we have predicted multiple times, that floor could be the $1,800 level, meaning a 13% downside risk still exists.

Sell Signal at $2,150 Increases the Odds of a 13% Drop for Ethereum

The daily chart shows that ETH could either rise past $2,150 during the weekend and get another shot at retesting its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) from below, or consolidate its rejection of a move above that mark.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet sent a sell signal in this higher time frame, as the oscillator has managed to stay above 40 despite the latest retreat.

That said, heading down to the 4-hour chart, the situation is entirely different as we got a sell signal right after ETH touched this level.

Our signals system tracks “decisional” candles across multiple time frames. These are specific candle patterns that feature above-average trading volumes.

Whenever they pop up at key levels, like this time at $2,150 for Ethereum, we interpret it as a signal of institutional or whale participation in the move.

Hence, we believe that the odds of a drop to $1,800 remain quite high despite today’s rebound.

At current levels, this trade offers an interesting 2.5x risk-reward ratio. Securing a higher entry price would be ideal to increase that ratio as much as possible.