Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Which Top Crypto Could Be A Better ‘HODL’ This Bear Market

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is quietly establishing a compelling bullish reversal pattern against its top-ranking rival, Bitcoin (BTC), despite the broader crypto market’s downside tone.

ETH/BTC Falling Wedge Hints at 20% Breakout

A widely traded ETH/BTC pair has spent the past five months forming a textbook falling wedge, a pattern historically associated with trend exhaustion and major upside reversals.

As of Nov. 19, ETH/BTC trades near 0.0333 BTC, sitting tightly inside the wedge’s apex.

Price is compressing between a descending resistance trendline and a relatively stable support base around 0.0308–0.0310 BTC, increasing the probability of a decisive breakout by late November or early December.

A confirmed breakout above the wedge resistance—currently near 0.0338 BTC—could trigger a measured move toward 0.041–0.042 BTC, aligning with the 0.786 Fib retracement and historical supply area.

A more conservative breakout from 0.0303 BTC still projects upside toward 0.037–0.038 BTC, roughly a 15–25% rally from current levels.

Importantly, ETH’s daily RSI is attempting to reclaim a multimonth resistance band near 51, a zone that has capped every failed upside push since August. A clean RSI breakout would add momentum to the bullish bias.

Fundamentally, the wedge reflects ETH’s relative underperformance throughout 2025. Bitcoin has dominated capital flows amid ETF demand and macro uncertainty, leaving ETH priced at a multi-year discount.

Historically, such extreme compression in ETH/BTC has preceded multimonth phases where Ethereum outperforms—most notably in 2016, 2017, and mid-2021.

For long-term holders weighing which asset may deliver stronger rebound potential, the technical picture suggests Ethereum could offer asymmetrically higher returns if the wedge resolves upward. But until confirmation arrives, Bitcoin’s macro leadership remains intact.

Ethereum MACD Prints Bullish Cross

Adding to the bullish wedge structure, momentum indicators are now offering early confirmation signals.

As analyst Gordon notes, ETH/BTC’s daily RSI has finally broken above its multimonth descending resistance, marking its first meaningful momentum shift since August.

At the same time, the MACD has flipped into a bullish cross, a setup that typically precedes trend reversals when paired with price stability.

Crucially, ETH/BTC continues to hold above its key horizontal support zone near 0.030–0.031 BTC, suggesting sellers are losing strength. If this confluence holds, Ethereum’s relative strength could spill over into the broader altcoin market, improving sentiment across high-beta assets.