EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – Rising Italy-German Bond Yields Abstained Fiber from Moving Up

Yesterday, the Fiber had an upshot on Trump’s delay for car import tariffs by six months. Meantime, Italian Dep. PM asked the EU to upgrade the EU fiscal debt levels to 140% of GDP.
Nikhil Khandelwal
money-1305124_1280

The Fiber remained quite silent in the Thursday’s early session hovering near 1.1210 levels despite midnight Eurogroup meeting. The pair seems to lack direction ahead of speeches by ECB Officials.

Meanwhile, the Euro pair had displayed a remarkable upshoot from 1.1183 levels, straight to 1.1225 levels last day. The upward movement followed after Trump announced that he might delay the auto import tariffs by six months. This news provided a significant boost to the European automobile industry and thereby uplifting the Fiber.

Reports also suggest that the US President stays reluctant to create further trade disputes. Trump is already struggling with the US-Sino trade and wishes to avoid any simultaneous trade complications with other partners. Hence, the possibility of a severe trade dispute between the EU & US seems to be cooled off, at least in the near term.

The EUR/USD is unable to show large positive percentage movement amid rising Italy-German Bond yields. Last day, the Yields reported went 140 basis points up, marking the highest figures since December. The upliftment in the bond yields occurred on the backdrop of Italian Deputy PM’s comments. Salvini appealed that the EU fiscal rule of maintaining debt levels of around 3% of the GDP should be changed. He added that the new debt ceiling should get pushed to 140% of the GDP.

On the other side, the US Dollar Index was trading near 97.5 levels since opening. Poor Retail Sales figures had lowered the Greenback gains on the previous day.

EUR/USD Influencing Events

The first hour of the day marked with Euro group meeting today. The EU working group launched a public consultation euro risk-free rates and discussed financial transparency.

Later in the morning session, ECB’s Peter Praet will talk about the EU monthly meeting discussions.  Furthermore, the German Buba President will give his opinions over the country’s economy.

Over the US events,  at 12:30 GMT, the April MoM Housing starts and Building Permits will get released. The analysts expect the Housing data to increase to 1.205 million this time. And anticipates the Building report to grow around 10 thousand. Laterwards, one of the important economic indicators for USD is expected to come out. It is the Initial Jobless Claims from period May 10 and Continuing Jobless Claims from May 3 would get published. The consensus estimates remain bearish as compared to recent monthly trend. Furthermore, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey will get broadcasted, and analysts expect it to come near 9 percent this time. Also, the Fed’s Lael Brainard will talk over Monetary Policy Committee decisions in the European session.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD 60 Min 16 May 2019

The pair was trading below its 50-days and 100-days Simple Moving Averages (SMA) suggesting a bearish trend for the day. The Euro pair remained capped today under the firm resistance level of 1.1263 levels. Laterwards, the pair had gauged a support point near 1.1178 levels. If the EUR/USD pair uplift in the future movements, then the next robust resistance awaits near 1.1323 levels. Over to the Bollinger Bands (BB), the pair remained in the upper vicinity of the BB. This position of the pair alludes for an uptrend and develops a bullish prospect among the traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered near 55 levels, confirming a substantial buying activity.

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