EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Hover at 50-Day EMA

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 03.07.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro initially fell during the trading session on Friday, dipping below the 50-Day EMA. However, the market has turned around to show signs of life again, and it looks as if it is trying to hang on to the 50-Day EMA for a bigger move. The 1.09 level seems to be a bit of a magnet for price, so it’s not a huge surprise to find out that we are there again. If we can break above here, then we could threaten the 1.10 level, which of course has a lot of psychology attached to it as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.

Underneath, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick we could open up and move down to the 1.08 level, but right now it doesn’t look like we are ready to do so. The fact that we did this on a Friday suggests that traders are not willing to stick their necks out too far, and that perhaps we will do simply continue to see a lot of the same consolidation that we have had over the last couple of weeks. All things being equal, I do think that this pair is higher in the short-term, but whether or not we can continue to go higher over the longer term is a completely different question.

In the meantime, I think you have to look at this through the prism of some type of consolidation, with perhaps a bit of an upward tilt. As long as that’s the case, I don’t have any interest in shorting this market, but I recognize that we have a real concern in the European Union with the Germans hitting a recession, and it is probably only a matter of time before we will see the rest of Europe follows. That being said, the next ECB meeting should be an interest rate increase, so that is probably something that will happen in the future. In the meantime, it’s more choppy behavior that we will be waiting through for a bigger move.

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