EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Drifts a Little Bit Higher

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

As you can see during the trading session on Monday, we drifted a little bit lower to kick off the day, but then turned around to show signs of life again. Ultimately, I think this is a market that is going to struggle with its overall momentum. I think momentum might be lacking for a while. Quite frankly, there’s not a lot to push the market around over the 24 hours between now and Tuesday. So, I suspect we’re just going to drift around aimlessly. If that’s going to be the case, then fine, we will just simply look at this through the prism of perhaps trying to sort out which direction we are trying to go longer term. Now, having said that, I do believe that this is a market that has multiple areas that you should be paying attention to.

The market is more likely than not going to continue to be a situation where we are looking at the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators as being crucial. And if that’s going to be the case, then you just have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we continue to see market participants just on the fence or are they going to start focusing on the Federal Reserve again? After all, we do know that the ECB will more likely than not have to cut rates this year because Germany is heading into a recession.

It’s generally expected and known at this point in time that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain somewhat steady until later this year, when they will start cutting. Because of this, I think we’re going to see a very range-bound 2024 with the 1.10 level above as a ceiling, while the 1.07 level underneath will end up being a bit of a floor. It’s actually part of a range between 1.0750 and 1.07. So, with all this being said, I don’t know that much has changed and we are basically just hanging around the middle of this box.

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