EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Stalls for the Second Day in a Row

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 20.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, as the market looks as if it is trying to figure out whether or not we can keep up the upward momentum. After all, the market had shot straight up in the air after the Federal Reserve meeting and of course the European Central Bank meeting as well. Ultimately, the ECB raised interest rates, while the Federal Reserve did not. However, it’s worth noting that the market is likely to continue being very noisy, and we are approaching the significant resistance above from previous trading.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA near the 1.0850 level and it is curling higher. The impulsive candlestick from Thursday shows you just how strong the euro is in the short-term, but there is a ton of noise between here and the 1.11 level so I do think that a pullback makes a certain amount of sense.

Ultimately, a lot of this will come down to risk appetite and of course whether or not people believe that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy going forward. The fact that they took a little bit of a pause when it comes to interest rate hikes does suggest that perhaps people are betting that the Federal Reserve will have to do a lot less in the future, and that it’s likely that we will see the US dollar continued to lose some strength due to that.

On the other hand, if the market takes out the top of the candlestick from the Friday session, then I think we will continue to grind toward the 1.11 level. Regardless, I think we are going to see a lot of noisy behavior in this market, and of course the fact that we are in the dead of summer typically will bring down the Average True Range anyway. With this being the case, it’s likely that we will see a lot of choppy behavior over the next couple of days and therefore you may have to be a bit nimble as the market tries to sort itself out yet again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.