Market Overview
The EUR/USD pair remained stable after the release of Germany’s Final GDP data, which showed a steady growth rate of 0.2% for the first quarter. This consistency in economic performance provided some support for the euro.
However, the GBP/USD faced pressure due to disappointing UK retail sales figures, which fell by 2.3% in April, significantly worse than the expected -0.5%.
This sharp decline suggests weaker consumer spending and potentially slower economic growth in the UK, weighing on the pound.
Events Ahead
Looking ahead, the G7 meetings continue, with potential discussions on global economic policies that could influence market sentiment. In China, the Foreign Direct Investment data showed a significant year-to-date decline of 26.1%, potentially affecting global risk appetite and currency movements.
Later today, speeches from key officials, including German Buba President Nagel and SNB Chairman Jordan, will be closely watched. In North America, Canadian retail sales data is expected to show mixed results. Core retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3%, while overall retail sales remain flat at 0.1%.
In the US, the focus will be on Core Durable Goods Orders, expected to rise by 0.1%, and Durable Goods Orders, anticipated to drop by 0.9%. Additionally, FOMC Member Waller’s speech and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations will provide further insights into the US economic outlook.
The Dollar Index, currently at 104.76, could see volatility based on these upcoming data points and speeches.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The Dollar Index is currently priced at $105.020, up 0.04%. Key levels to watch include the pivot point at $105.114. Immediate resistance is at $105.311, followed by $105.512 and $105.724. Immediate support is at $104.808, with further support at $104.626 and $104.395.
The 50-day EMA is at $104.826, and the 200-day EMA is at $104.988, indicating mixed signals. The outlook is bearish below $105.114; however, a break above this level could enhance the bullish bias.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08171, down 0.06%. Key price levels to watch include the pivot point at $1.08072. Immediate resistance is at $1.08357, with further resistance at $1.08639.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.07892, followed by $1.07753 and $1.07604. The 50-day EMA stands at $1.08351, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.08073. These indicators suggest mixed signals.
The outlook remains bullish above $1.08072, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
The GBP/USD is currently priced at $1.2699, down 0.06%. Key levels to monitor include the pivot point at $1.2702. Immediate resistance is at $1.2732, with further resistance at $1.2758 and $1.2784.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.2674, followed by $1.2647 and $1.2619. The 50-day EMA is $1.2702, while the 200-day EMA is $1.2627, indicating mixed signals.
The outlook remains bullish above $1.2674, but a break below this level could initiate a sharp selling trend.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
