Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC’s Negative Apparent Demand Raises XX% Dip Risks

Bitcoin’s (BTC) onchain data is flashing a fresh warning sign as its Apparent Demand metric flips back into negative territory, hinting at weakening market strength despite relatively stable prices above $107,000.

BTC’s Demand Fades Amid Miner + LTH Sell Pressure

Apparent Demand—a 30-day summation of demand adjusted for newly mined supply and revived long-term holder (LTH) coins—has turned negative for the first time since mid-March.

The flip indicates that new buyer activity is now insufficient to absorb selling from miners and LTHs, whose coins are increasingly moving back into circulation.

Historically, periods of negative Apparent Demand have coincided with consolidation phases or sharp corrections in Bitcoin’s price. The latest downturn in demand follows a multimonth uptrend that peaked in early May, mirroring similar exhaustion patterns seen in Q1 2024.

The apparent selling from LTHs—often dubbed “smart money”—adds to the bearish undertone.

These holders tend to move coins only when they believe a local top is forming or macro conditions are shifting. With BTC failing to break convincingly above $112,000, their exits could be signaling a cooling of upside momentum.

In March 2025, a similar demand dip preceded a 20% correction, and while the price hasn’t yet reacted this time, the imbalance between demand and supply creates a fragile market setup.

Bitcoun Technicals Hint at Drop Toward $98,600

The daily Bitcoin price chart shows BTC consolidating inside a bull flag pattern. It’s considered a bullish continuation structure, but BTC’s ongoing rejection after testing the upper trendline raises short-term downside risks.

The pattern’s lower support trendline currently aligns near $98,600, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.

Breakout Still in Play Toward $130,000

Despite the downside risks, bulls are not without hope.

A breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline—roughly around the $110,000–$112,000 range—could flip the structure into a bullish continuation pattern, potentially triggering a rally toward the $130,000–$132,000 zone based on the height of the triangle’s prior move.

This scenario aligns with previous breakout behavior from April, where a consolidation was followed by a sharp leg higher. A breakout backed by rising volume and a rebound in onchain demand would confirm that buyers are regaining control.