EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: CPI, FOMC Set to Stir Markets

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Published: Apr 9, 2024, 08:15 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Dollar Index climbs to 104.137, hinting at strength amidst a robust U.S. employment scene.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD show cautious optimism, eyeing pivotal CPI data for direction.
Upcoming FOMC minutes and Barkin’s speech critical for gauging future monetary policy shifts.

Market Overview

Following recent data, the Dollar Index showed resilience, with significant employment growth at 303K jobs added, outstripping the expected 212K, and an unemployment rate steadying at 3.8%.

The EUR/USD pair, trading near 1.08586, and GBP/USD, slightly up at 1.26592, both reflect cautious market optimism.

Events Ahead

Today’s minor events, including the NFIB Small Business Index and RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, may stir market sentiment, yet the spotlight shifts towards the upcoming CPI data.

With Core CPI and CPI m/m projected at 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, these figures are pivotal in gauging inflationary pressures and their impact on currency valuation.

The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and Member Barkin’s speech are also keenly awaited for further clues on monetary policy direction.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index modestly increased to 104.137, up by 0.02%. It now tests the pivot point at 103.92, suggesting potential for upward movement. Resistance levels are set at 104.42, 104.70, and 105.09, indicating possible ceilings for price advancement.

Support is identified at 103.54, 103.23, and 102.77, providing floors where buying might intensify. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs, at 103.87 and 103.81 respectively, hover near the pivot, reinforcing its significance.

The outlook remains bullish above 103.92, but falling below this critical juncture could lead to a sharp downward correction in the Dollar Index.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair slightly declined to 1.08586, marking a 0.02% drop. It hovers just below the pivot point of 1.0864, with resistance levels at 1.0911, 1.0963, and 1.0999 shaping the potential upward path.

Conversely, support is found at 1.0800, 1.0747, and 1.0695, suggesting areas where buyers could emerge. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 1.0825 and 1.08383 respectively, indicate a closely contested market.

The current trendline suggests resistance, with the EUR/USD seen as bearish below 1.0864. A breach above this threshold may signal a shift to a more bullish outlook.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair inched up to 1.26592, registering a modest gain of 0.03%. Positioned slightly above the pivot point at 1.2647, it shows potential for further ascension. Resistance is anticipated at 1.2710, 1.2750, and 1.2802, delineating levels where upward momentum may face hurdles.

On the downside, support lies at 1.2593, 1.2540, and 1.2502, indicating areas of potential buying interest. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 1.2632 and 1.2661 respectively, suggest a balanced market trend.

The outlook for GBP/USD remains bullish above 1.2647, but dropping below this pivot could prompt a significant bearish shift.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.