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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading slightly better against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday as traders await the outcome of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

On Wednesday, the single-currency hit its highest level since November 4 against the U.S. Dollar after the Federal Reserve’s forecast that it would hold rates through 2020. The Fed basically told the markets that the three rate cuts they’ve made since July are not going to be reversed any time in the next year.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the economic outlook for the U.S. was favorable as the central bank announced its decision to hold rates steady, as expected, though forecast only moderate and slowing growth through 2020 and 2021.

At 12:29 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1134, up 0.0005 or +0.04%.

According to CNBC, “Today is Christine Lagarde’s first meeting as president of the European Central Bank. Lagarde is all but certain to keep money taps open, but investors will be curious to tune in to her first post-meeting press conference to seek clues about a broader policy revamp that could become the cornerstone of her tenure.”


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The next upside target is the October 31 main top at 1.1176.

A trade through 1.0981 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely. However, since the EUR/USD is up nine sessions from its last main bottom on November 29, traders should be prepared for a closing price reversal top.

The short-term range is 1.1176 to 1.0981. Its retracement zone at 1.1102 to 1.1079 is potential support.

The major upside target controlling the long-term direction of the EUR/USD is the Fibonacci level at 1.1185.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1134, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1139.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1139 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible acceleration into the main top at 1.1176.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1139 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the support cluster at 1.1102 to 1.1101. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this area.

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