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U.S. Dollar Rebounds From Session Lows As Traders Stay Focused On NFP Data: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jul 3, 2026, 17:15 GMT+00:00

The American currency moved away from session lows in holiday-thinned trading session.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY
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U.S. Dollar Moves Away From Session Lows

DXY 030726 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index rebounded from recent lows as traders continued to digest Non Farm Payrolls data.

FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 45.9% probability that Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 bps in September. Rate hike expectations provide some support to the American currency, although the disappointing job market data has certainly put some pressure on the bulls.

U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle below the support at 100.50 – 100.65 and rebounded above the 100.80 level. If U.S. Dollar Index climbs above the 101.00 level, it will get to the test of the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30.

On the support side, a successful test of the support at 100.50 – 100.65 will open the way to the test of the next support at 99.75 – 99.90.

EUR/USD Gains Ground In Quiet Trading

EUR/USD 030726 4h Chart

EUR/USD is moving higher as traders bet that Fed could be less hawkish than previously expected.

In case EUR/USD stays above the support at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.1500 – 1.1515. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, a move below the 1.1420 level will push EUR/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.1394. If EUR/USD declines below the 50 MA, it will head towards the support at 1.1350 – 1.1365.

GBP/USD Remains Stuck Near 1.3350

GBP/USD 030726 4h Chart

GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. RSI has recently moved back into the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

If GBP/USD settles above the 1.3350 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3450 – 1.3465 range.

On the support side, a move below the 1.3335 level will push GBP/USD towards the 1.3300 level. In case GBP/USD declines below 1.3300, it will head towards the support at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

USD/CAD Gains Ground Ahead Of The Weekend

USD/CAD 030726 4h Chart

USD/CAD is moving higher despite the rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4150 level, while silver settled above $62.40. Other commodity-related currencies are gaining ground in today’s trading session.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle above the 50 MA at 1.4206. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will get to the test of the resistance level at 1.4225 – 1.4240. This resistance level has been tested multiple times and proved its strength.

USD/JPY Moves Higher As Traders Shrug Off Intervention Risks

USD/JPY 030726 4h Chart

USD/JPY attempts to rebound after the recent pullback, which was driven by profit-taking. Traders are cautious amid intervention risks. However, it remains to be seen whether the Bank of Japan has sufficient firepower to scare bulls. Previous attempts to provide support to the Japanese yen failed, and the Japanese currency tested multi-decade lows.

From the technical point of view, USD/JPY is trying to settle back above the resistance at 161.50 – 162.00. In case this attempt is successful, USD/JPY will move towards recent highs at 162.80. A move above 162.80 will open the way to the test of the 165.00 level.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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