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U.S. Dollar Dives As Non Farm Payrolls Miss Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jul 2, 2026, 17:12 GMT+00:00

The American currency found itself under pressure as traders reduced bets on hawkish Fed.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts
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U.S. Dollar Retreats After Weak Non Farm Payrolls Report

DXY 020726 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to the disappointing Non Farm Payrolls report. The report indicated that U.S. economy added +57,000 jobs in June, compared to analyst forecast of +110,000. Unemployment Rate declined from 4.3% in May to 4.2% in June, while analysts expected that it would remain unchanged at 4.2%.

The yield of 2-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 4.13% level as traders reduced bets on hawkish Fed. The yields of 10-year and 30-year Treasuries were mostly unchanged.

The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 99.75 – 99.90. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

EUR/USD Moves Higher As Traders Focus On U.S. Job Market Data

EUR/USD 020726 4h Chart

EUR/USD gained ground as traders focused on U.S. job market and reacted to the Euro Area Unemployment Rate report. The report indicated that Euro Area Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 6.2%, compared to analyst forecast of 6.3%.

In case EUR/USD stays above the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515.

GBP/USD Tests Resistance At 1.3335 – 1.3350

GBP/USD 020726 4h Chart

GBP/USD rallied, supported by the weak Non Farm Payrolls report. Traders bet that Fed will be less hawkish, which is bullish for GBP/USD.

Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3450 – 1.3465 range.

USD/CAD Moves Lower Amid Rising Demand For Commodity-Related Currencies

USD/CAD 020726 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulls back as traders focus on the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4100 level, while silver settled near $61.00. Other commodity-related currencies have also moved higher in today’s trading session.

The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. In case USD/CAD declines below the 1.4125 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.4025 – 1.4040.

On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the 50 MA at 1.4204 to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.4225 – 1.4240.

USD/JPY Dives Amid Profit-Taking

USD/JPY 020726 4h Chart

USD/JPY pulled back as traders rushed to take profits near multi-decade highs. The Non Farm Payrolls report put additional pressure on USD/JPY as traders reduced bets on hawkish Fed. USD/JPY is sensitive to changes in Fed policy outlook due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan.

USD/JPY pulled back below the resistance at 161.50 – 162.00 and is trying to settle below the 161.00 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle below 161.00, it will head towards the psychologically important 160.00 level. A move below 160.00 will open the way to the test of the support at 158.00 – 158.50.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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