Dow Jones: US 30 Hits All-Time High as Weak Payrolls Ease Fed Fears

Weak Payrolls Push Dow to Record High

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 373 points or 0.71% Thursday morning, trading at a new all-time high after June nonfarm payrolls came in at 57,000 against expectations of 115,000. The S&P 500 is adding 0.19%. The Nasdaq Composite is down 0.26% as the rotation out of tech from Wednesday is carrying into Thursday.

Traders are pulling rate hike bets, the 2-year Treasury yield is down more than 5 basis points to around 4.11%, and the Dow is running to a record before the morning is over. For the holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 is up more than 2%, the Dow has gained more than 1%, and the Nasdaq is on pace for more than 3%.

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is trading at a new all-time shortly after the cash market opening on Thursday. The new record high is 52805.12 and based on the strength of today’s move, the blue chip average is not likely to stop there. I also expect to see a new record close above 52319.21.

The Dow is now in the midst of a five-day rally. The price action is driving both the minor and main trend. Minor bottoms are trailing at 51614.74 and 51301.77. The main bottom is 49909.07. The primary focus for investors, however, is the 50-day moving average at 50551.03 and the 200-day moving average at 48441.60.

The 50-day MA is providing guidance and support for the intermediate trend and the 200-day MA, for the long-term trend.

Daily S&P 500 Index (SPX) Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 Index cleared an important hurdle on Thursday, the short-term retracement zone at 7474.57 to 7429.38. This zone is new support along with the 50-day moving average at 7395.20 and swing bottoms at 7294.18 and 7237.85. Nonetheless, it still faces headwinds at 7577.92 and 7620.90, the all-time high.

Due to Friday’s U.S. holiday, the rest of the session could be grind. But when investors return on Monday, bigger volume could trigger lead to greater upside momentum.

Daily Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq Composite Index is mixed and the upside momentum is not as strong as the Dow and S&P 500. The tech-heavy index is still struggling with the short-term retracement zone at 26085.30 to 26346.05. However, as long as it holds the 50-day moving average at 25918.16, our bias will be to the upside. Take out the 50-day MA, and our focus shifts to the two main bottoms at 25014.96 and 24980.38. Break these two levels and the long-term retracement zone at 23940.23 to 23173.24 hits the radar along with the 200-day MA at 23703.57.

Revisions Made the NFP Miss Look Worse

The NFP headline is bad enough but the revisions are sealing it. May was revised down to 129,000 and April got cut too. Three straight months of downward revisions tell you the labor market was already softer than anyone thought before June confirmed it.

Unemployment dropped to 4.2% from 4.3%, though participation fell with it. Wages are holding at 0.3% monthly and 3.5% year over year, right on expectations. Hiring is strongest in professional and business services, healthcare, and social assistance. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs, the biggest sector decline in the report.

Warsh Gave Nothing Away

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said this week that inflation expectations and risks have come down in recent weeks but repeated the Fed is committed to 2% and prices are still too high. That is Warsh leaving every door open and walking through none of them.

Markets are pricing over 70% odds that rates hold at the July meeting. September hike odds were running 60% to 64% before today’s number and those are coming down. Warsh emphasized the Fed is not locked into any predetermined path, which after a miss this size sounds a lot more like patience than urgency to tighten.

BofA Says Rotate Into Cyclicals

Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian says strong economic growth and corporate earnings still back U.S. equities but the opportunity is outside the biggest tech names right now. She is pointing to industrials, energy, and materials. She is highlighting energy stocks specifically for disciplined capital spending, strong cash returns, and dividend growth.

The Nasdaq trading red while the Dow is posting a record is that call playing out in real time. The money leaving tech after Wednesday’s chipmaker weakness is going into the cyclical names, and the Dow at all-time highs with the Nasdaq lower tells you where institutions are putting capital this week.

What to Watch

Payrolls at 57,000 is killing the September hike conversation. The Dow is running to a record and the money is coming out of tech and going into cyclicals. That trade stays on unless inflation data brings the hike back. CPI and PPI are the next two numbers that matter. Both come in soft alongside this labor miss and the Fed is done for 2026. One hot print and September is back on the board, and the cyclical names running today are the first ones that get sold.

The Dow is five days into a rally at all-time highs with both moving averages well below providing trend support. The S&P 500 cleared its retracement zone and the all-time high at 7,620.90 is next. Volume when traders come back Monday is the tell. Follow-through confirms today’s move as real positioning. Thin trade means it was pre-holiday window dressing. The Nasdaq is the laggard until it gets through its retracement zone at 26,085 to 26,346. Until then, the rotation keeps the tech-heavy index behind the Dow.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.