Silver Price Analysis – Silver Eyes 50-Day EMA as Yield Headwinds Loom

Silver Technical Analysis

The silver market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Thursday, as we are well above the $60 level. The jobs number coming out on Thursday, of course, has made this a very strange trading session, as the jobs report was pushed forward due to the Independence Day holiday that will technically be on Saturday, but typically, on Friday, Americans leave the office, and of course, it’ll be a bank holiday. With that being said, this is a market that is rallying and trying to get back towards the 50-day EMA.

Evaluating Macro Headwinds and Long-Term Supply Deficits

I think this is a situation where any rally at this point in time shows signs of exhaustion as a shorting opportunity. That would be, of course, as long as interest rates remain strong and the US dollar remains strong. If the US dollar starts to sell off, then that might give the silver market a little bit of a push. All things being equal, though, if we do break down below the $57 level, it opens up the possibility of a move down to the $50 level.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be noisy. It does look like it’s got a little further to go, and the overall structural situation with silver is that there is nowhere near enough supply for the demand, and I do think longer term it goes much higher. I just don’t think we’re clear and free yet. A little bit of a bounce and a pullback is literally what I’m expecting.

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