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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 18, 2020

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 18, 2020, 17:31 UTC

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0811, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s close at 1.0836.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 18, 2020

The Euro is trading lower on Tuesday but well off its multi-year low reached earlier in the session. The single-currency plunged after a German survey showing a slump in investor confidence added to pessimism about Europe’s largest economy.

The Euro is down around 3.4% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, as weak manufacturing and gross domestic product data from Germany confirm the Euro Zone is more vulnerable than most economies to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak which started in China.

At 17:09 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0811, down 0.0025 or -0.23%.

The catalyst behind Tuesday’s selling pressure is a survey from Germany’s ZEW research institute that showed investors’ mood had deteriorated far more than expected in February, on worries coronavirus would dampen world trade.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend was reaffirmed when sellers took out last Thursday’s low at 1.0827.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1095. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the EUR/USD is currently inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.0926 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

On the upside, two former main bottoms are resistance at 1.0838 and 1.0879.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0811, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s close at 1.0836.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0836 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 1.0786 will reaffirm the downtrend and bring the EUR/USD closer to the April 10, 2017 main bottom at 1.0569.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0836 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a rally into a steep downtrending Gann angle at 1.0855. Sellers could come in on the first test of this angle. However, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

A close over 1.0836 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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