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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, December 26, 2018

The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, showing signs of strength again. I believe this point we will probably struggle to get above the 1.15 handle, an area that has been massive resistance in the past. Ultimately, we have been grinding a bit higher, so I think we are starting to see market participants short the US dollar overall. There is a massive barrier between the 1.15 level and the 1.16 level, so it’s going to be difficult to break above it. But if we do break above there, the market could go to the 1.18 level after that.

EUR USD Forecast Video 26.12.18

I believe at this point the market is probably focusing on the fact that the Federal Reserve is starting to soften its stance a bit. That being the case, it is perhaps a bit overdone when it comes to the US dollar being bought. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to be noisy and therefore I think that the trade here would be for a longer-term move, as short-term trading is going to be very choppy. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level does look as if it is trying to hold at this point, but I don’t think that buying this market is going to be the easiest thing to do. It is a big sloppy mess essentially, so I believe at this point the EUR/USD pair is probably one of the least attractive pair is out there.

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