EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Breaking Through 200 Day EMA

The Euro has broken through the 1.1830 level and the 200 day EMA to threaten the 1.18 level by the time the Americans came on board. At this point, the Euro looks like it is ready to continue falling, perhaps to reach towards the 1.16 level. I do think that if we continue to press to the downside, there is a bit of a “air pocket” that would come into play.

EUR/USD Video 25.03.21

At this point in time, I am not a buyer of the Euro as the yields in America continue to rise and of course we have major lockdowns in the European Union that continue to weigh upon the economy. With that being the case, I think that the Euro is going to be one of the weakest G 10 currencies out there, so I am not looking to buy the Euro against almost anything. The one exception might be the Swiss franc, but that is more of a longer-term cyclical trade in my estimation.

If we do bounce, I would be somewhat surprised if we can break above the 1.19 handle, so I do think that it is only a matter of time before sellers would step back in and push this market anyway. In other words, short-term rallies will end up being selling opportunities that we can take advantage of, and I most certainly plan on doing that at the first signs of exhaustion. I will base exhaustion on four hour charts or above, with long wicks reaching to the upside. I do believe that we are more likely than not to see the 1.16 handle over the next couple of months.

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