The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday again to show signs of life. By doing so, the market looks as if it is trying to figure out whether or not the ECB is going to become much more aggressive in its tightening stance.
The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday to break above the 1.02 level. This is an area where I thought we might see a little bit more in the way of resistance, but we have cleared it rather handily. Because of this, it is more likely than not going to continue to see a little bit of bullish pressure, but I think the next major area to worry about is the 1.04 region. This is an area that begins a solid 200 PIP range of potential resistance.
That being said, I am looking for signs of exhaustion to start shorting again, because I do not believe that we have had “rock-bottom” quite yet. I think this is a simple bear market rally, and perhaps a bit of an oversold bounce. I do believe that given enough time we will see a reason for this market to turn around, especially as the energy problems in the European Union are going to cause major economic issues. In fact, it appears that Russia is turning off natural gas to Germany altogether.
With this being the case, it’s simply a matter of waiting for an opportunity to fade a market that is in a longer-term secular downtrend for good reason. Eventually, we will get the daily close below the parity level that could open up the floodgates. The alternate scenario is that we somehow break above the 1.06 level, which would be a major coup for the bullish.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.