EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Looking at 200 Day EMA

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session only to sell off and it shows signs of weakness yet again as we sliced through the 1.19 handle. Looking at this candlestick, you can see that we are trying to reach towards the 200 day EMA, which of course is a major technical indicator. At this point, I would expect to see a lot of volatility, but the biggest driver of the pair will probably have to do with yields coming out of the 10 year note. As those yields rise, it does make the US dollar a bit more attractive. With that in mind, you should be paying attention to as the 10 year is now offering 1.6%.

EUR/USD Video 9.03.21

If this market can recapture the 1.19 level, we could see a reversal, but I would not expect it to be very explosive. All things being equal, this is a market that has to make a rather significant decision, but a lot of the pundits are now suggesting that perhaps the Euro could drop down to the 1.16 level. I do believe that the market is going to be very noisy in the short term, so having said that it is likely that we will some type of sudden move, perhaps even a break down towards the 1.16 level, but if we do see a reversal, I would expect that to be more of a grind than anything else. As long as we are below 1.19, then I believe that we will continue towards that aforementioned 1.16 handle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.