Christopher Lewis
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EUR/USD daily chart, September 18, 2018

The Euro rallied significantly during the trading session on Monday, reaching towards 1.17 level where we had seen a lot of selling last week. Ultimately, this is a marketplace that should continue to be very noisy, but it looks as if we do have a bit of an upward proclivity and I would point out that the longer-term consolidation continues with the 1.18 level above being a target. Underneath, I see the 1.15 level as support but I don’t know that we are going to break out of this range anytime soon. I think it will be very noisy, and it’ll be interesting to see whether we can finally build up the necessary momentum to make the longer-term move.

Quite frankly, I think there are so many moving pieces right now that it’s good to be difficult to do that, as the ECB looks to say soft for a while, and of course we have to worry about emerging market debt being held by European banks. In other words, I think there are so many different things going back and forth that it’s good to be difficult for this market to find traction in one direction or another. I believe that short-term trading continues to drive this pair, and therefore you will have to pay attention to large, round, psychologically significant figures.

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If we can break above the 1.18 handle, then the market then goes to the 1.20 level above. That’s an area that will cause a lot of resistance as well, both psychologically and historically. I do favor the upside longer-term, but I don’t know that we are ready to do so quite yet.

EUR USD Forecast Video 18.09.18

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