EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Testing the 200-Day EMA Again

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we are flirting around the 200-Day EMA yet again, and of course the 1.04 level. This is an area that previously had been resistance, so it would not surprise me at all to see this continue to cause problems.

Quite frankly, the European Union has a whole host of problems that are going to be very difficult to overcome. With that being said, the market is likely to continue the downward push, as we head into the wintertime. In the short term, I think this is probably best described as a “bear market rally”, but clearly, we are starting to struggle with momentum.

If we turn around and drop below the 1.03 level, then I think we have a real shot at dropping down to parity. At the parity level, we have the 50-Day EMA, but fundamentally the European Union has a whole host of issues that the United States simply does not have. Energy is the first thing that comes to mind due to the fact that the Europeans don’t have enough of it, and certainly won’t for the winter.

Add to that the fact that the situation in Ukraine is getting worse, not better, and therefore I think you have a recipe for exhaustion eventually. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has had several speakers this week that seemed just about as confused as usual, so therefore traders are starting to get that “hopium” for cheap and easy money. However, the question you need to ask at this point is: “What if there is a longer-term monetary regime change?”

EUR/USD Price Forecast Video for 17.11.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.