EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Softens Slightly on Friday After NFP

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied rather significantly during the trading session here on Friday after the jobs number came out, adding only 22,000 in the United States, and of course, people are increasing their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut and probably a series of them. That being said, it’s already known that’s the case. So, despite the fact that this is such a strong candlestick, it’s really not until we break above the 1.18 level that anything has changed.

If we turn around and break down below the 1.16 level, then the US dollar is strengthening and that’s probably going to be a major run to safety in case people are panicking about the global economy.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has plunged against the Japanese yen during the trading session like you would expect. But we are sitting right at the 50 day EMA and we’re still very much within the consolidation area that we have been in for quite some time. With that being the case, I think you’ve got a scenario where not much has changed again. And we’ve seen candlesticks like this recently. So, it’s really not until we break down below 146 yen that I think anything has changed here either.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied quite nicely, but again, it hasn’t really reached escape velocity. We have a much sloppier area to deal with here, with 0.66 offering resistance. If we were to break above there, then we can start to have a conversation about a much bigger move. Short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to be a very real possibility, but if we were to break above the top of the candlestick on Thursday, July 24, I think at that point, you really start to see the Australian dollar take off.

This will be a US dollar centric move. So, you’ll see the dollar fall apart everywhere. And then you’ll see it play out here, which the Australian dollar, for what it’s worth, has been a laggard.

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