EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Continues to Rally Into Resistance

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 03.04.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Euro has rallied significantly during the trading week to test the 1.09 level, an area that has been resistance previously, extending to the 1.10 level for selling pressure. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in general, and therefore it’s not a huge surprise to see that we could fall from here. If we do, then it’s possible that the market could go down to the 1.07 level, followed by the 1.06 level, both of which are areas that we’ve seen a little bit of support at.

Keep in mind that the interest-rate situation in the United States continues to be parsed, and of course traders are still trying to figure out whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue to see a reason to tighten monetary policy. Ultimately, this is a situation where we also have to worry about risk appetite, because if things get truly ugly, the US dollar continues to see money running into the currency to get into the bond market for safety.

On the other hand, if we do turn around and break above the 1.11 level, then it opens up a much bigger move to the upside. While this has been a big move higher, I also recognize that we are still below the 200-Week EMA, and of course have had a nice bounce, but were still just around the 50% Fibonacci level of the overall selloff that happened previously. Another thing to be concerned about is the fact that there are still quite a few issues in the banking sector, giving you the likelihood of the US dollar being a safe haven going forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.