EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Continues to See Noise

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Euro initially did try to rally during the course of the week but gave up some of those gains to show signs of hesitation and then broke down from there. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility between the 1.07 level underneath and the 1.10 resistance above. In general, this is a situation where we continue to see a lot of choppiness.

I don’t know if we see any real conviction one way or the other, and that’s mainly due to the fact that both central banks are likely to make rate cuts sometime this year and therefore they both are loosening monetary policy. In other words, I don’t think you have a situation where one is going to outweigh the other. Now there are a few things that could change that, not the least of which would be a risk-off move.

If we get some type of big risk-off move, that of course favors the US dollar. If we break above the 1.10 level, that would not only clear significant psychological resistance and previous resistance, but it also breaks above a 200 week EMA. If we break down below the 1.07 level, then it opens up a move down to the 1.05 level, which is also supported. I think you’re going to have to get used to chopping around and just grinding away in this pair.

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