EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro stock in consolidation

The EUR/USD pair has initially tried to rally during the week but gave back the gains to close lower. As you can see by the yellow rectangle on the chart, not much has changed since last week, and I believe that the 1.15 level will continue to be crucial overall. I believe in buying dips, but if you are a longer-term trader you probably will become quite bored waiting for this market to move. Once we break above the 1.1850 level, we could be going back to the 1.25 handle over the longer-term.

The alternate scenario of course is that we break down below the 1.15 handle, which would be very negative. I see a lot of demand underneath there though, so it would make sense for the downside to be somewhat limited. With the trade wars going on, the US dollar has taken it on the chin occasionally, so perhaps something like that could send this pair higher. Perhaps we could get some type of resolution to the Brexit, which would also send this pair higher as it eliminates a certain amount of uncertainty.

Keep in mind that the pair is somewhat risk sensitive, so if stock markets go higher that could push this market higher as well. I’m waiting to see if we can close below the 1.15 level before I consider shorting, so this point it is a “buy the dips” type of market from what I see. That doesn’t mean we are going anywhere soon, as the August month tends to be very quiet.

EUR/USD Video 06.08.18