EUR/CHF Forecast for the Week of December 26, 2011, Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF pair continues to be very tight in its range, and as a result we don’t see any real long-term prospects currently. However, there are two levels that are going to matter going forward: the 1.25 and 1.20 handles. If the 1.20 level gets violated to the downside, there is a strong chance that the Swiss National Bank will get involved as it is at that level they imposed a “floor” in this pair. We would be willing to buy at that point knowing the central bank will more than likely help us along. If the 1.25 gets broken to the upside, it would signal a major breakout in this pair, and a major sentiment change as a result. At that point, we would be buyers. Until one of these levels gives way though, this is a short-term trader’s pair.