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EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis January 30, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Jan 29, 2015, 13:54 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/CHF gained an amazing 187 points to trade at 1.0404 as the euro seemed to search for a new trading range now that

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis January 30, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis January 30, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis January 30, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF gained an amazing 187 points to trade at 1.0404 as the euro seemed to search for a new trading range now that all the major market data for the month has been released. The euro continues to gain momentum as traders evaluate the effects of the ECB new stimulus package on the currency.  For the past seven sessions, the franc has been declining steadily across the board. From the strongest daily close after the SNB action, the dollar has corrected 7.34%, pound 7.14% and yen 7.10%, as of Thursday’s weakest point. The correction against euro was just 5.6%.

The franc is still holding much of its strength versus majors, and with the highest margin against the euro. At its weakest on Thursday, the Swiss franc stood 10.21% up against the dollar, 10.86% against Sterling and 10.81% versus the yen.

Against the euro, the Swiss currency is still 14.84% stronger from where it had closed a day before the SNB action.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)

0.2%

0.9%

0.5%

   

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM)

0.3%

0.3%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Ger. Unemployment

-9K

-10K

-25K

   

  EUR

 

Ger. Unemployment

6.5%

6.5%

6.6%

   

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM)

 

-0.8%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

300K

307K

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales) 

 

0.5%

0.8%

   

 

EURCHF(60 minutes)20150129142042

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, January 30th

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  NZD

 

Building Consents

 

 

10.0%

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending

 

0.3%

0.4%

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY)

 

2.6%

2.7%

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production

 

1.3%

-0.5%

 

  AUD

 

PPI (QoQ) (Q4)

 

0.3%

0.2%

 

  EUR

 

German Retail Sales

 

0.3%

1.0%

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY)  

 

0.6%

0.7%

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Jan)  

 

-0.5%

-0.2%

 

  EUR

 

Unemployment Rate

 

11.5%

11.5%

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  

 

3.0%

5.0%

 

  CAD

 

GDP (MoM) (Nov) 

 

-0.1%

0.3%

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Jan)

 

57.5

58.3

 

  USD

 

Michigan Consumer

 

98.2

98.2

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date                Country Auction

Feb 02                  Norway Details bond auction on 4 Feb

Feb 04                  Norway Holds bond auction

Feb 04                  UK Auctions I/L Gilt

Feb 04                  US Announces 3/10 year Notes, plus 30-yr Bond

Feb 04                  Sweden Details bond auction on 11 Feb

Feb 05                  Spain Auctions   

Feb 05                  France Auctions OATs 

 

 

 

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