EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis, April 17, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP continued to fall dipping another 24 points to trade at 0.7171following yesterday’s harsh moves. Sterling rose half a percent to a four-week high against the euro on Wednesday after the European Central Bank said it had no plans to curb or curtail its 1.1 trillion-euro asset-purchase program. “As of today, we still favor sterling as a safe haven against the possibility of Greece leaving the Eurozone, but if the polls go against Cameron for a couple more days, we will see sterling undermined said a London trader.

Describing speculation that the fledgling 60 billion-euro-a- month scheme would be scaled back as “surprising”, ECB President Mario Draghi made clear quantitative easing would last until September 2016 or until inflation was back up to target.

Mr Draghi sought to send a very clear message today but it was a message intended to have minimal market impact; a major policy initiative has been implemented, it is working smoothly with encouraging early results and it is set to continue for a considerable period of time. The strong emphasis on the continued implementation of the program did cause bond yields to ease marginally but, by and large, Mr Draghi succeeded in persuading markets that the ECB is now on a pre‐set and lengthy course.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

There is a slew of US economic data in the North American session

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 17, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Apr 20 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 22 Apr

Apr 20 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Apr 21 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Apr 22 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Apr 22 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Apr 22 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 27 Apr

Apr 23 17:00 US Announces 2-yr FRN, plus 2/5/7 yr Notes

Apr 23 19:00 US Auctions 5-yr TIPS

Apr 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 29 Apr