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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 7, 2015, 10:29 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP moved to 0.7046 after the release of UK trade numbers. The pound and the euro remained well matched today with

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – August 10, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp friday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP moved to 0.7046 after the release of UK trade numbers. The pound and the euro remained well matched today with both bouncing up and down. The pound strengthened against the euro today after comments from the BoE on Super Thursday. With the economy now recovering strongly and wages finally rising more quickly, speculation is growing about when it might start to wean Britain off low rates, mirroring the debate at the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Carney warned investors not to be too relaxed about the path, or ‘curve’, that they are predicting for rates.

He pointed out that the Bank was forecasting that inflation would start to overshoot its 2 percent target in just over two years’ time, based on predictions in the market for a first BoE rate hike in the second quarter of next year.

The euro weakened after a disappoint data print. German industrial production tanked in June, against expectations. June’s figures showed the worst month-on-month performance for Europe’s largest industrial base since August last year. Production fell 1.4% from May, against the 0.4% rise analysts had expected.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Jun)

4.4%

5.0%

-7.3%

   

  AUD

 

RBA Monetary Policy Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

  CHF

 

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jul)

3.1%

3.1%

3.1%

 

 

  CHF

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.4%

0.3%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Jun)

24.0B

21.5B

19.5B

   

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Jun)

 -9.18B

-9.30B

-8.42B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun)

 -1.62b

-2.40B

-1.34B

   

EURGBP(15 minutes)20150807055744

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 10, 2015

 

Event

 

 

Previous

   

 

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jul)

   

51

   

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Jul)

   

53.5

   

USD

Labor Market Conditions Index (Jul)

   

0.8

   

NZD

Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)

   

0.5%

   

NZD

Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)

   

5%

   

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor – All (YoY)

   

1.8%

   
                       

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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