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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2013 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 21:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8580 gaining 63 pips as the euro gained on sentiment while the pound declined on poor retail

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2013 Forecast

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2013 Forecast
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2013 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8580 gaining 63 pips as the euro gained on sentiment while the pound declined on poor retail sales and disappointment in the MPC minutes. At the same time the IMF is aggressively lobbying the UK government to turn from austerity to growth. Sterling tumbled following minutes released by the Bank of England and disappointing retail sales, as the IMF warned the U.K. is at risk of “permanent damage” if its growth remains persistently slow. Sterling fell by as much as 0.5 percent as retail sales missed expectations, with total food sales plunging 4.1 percent – the largest monthly fall in almost two years.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England also surprised markets with the minutes from its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which revealed that outgoing Governor Mervyn King continued to vote in favour of more quantitative easing (QE), despite stronger gross domestic product (GDP) data and inflation falling to 2.4 percent in April, its biggest fall in a year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 22, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 22

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.76T

 

-0.61T 

 

-0.92T 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-7.00%

 

 

 

-5.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

0.0% 

 

-0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.5%

 

2.0% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.410%

 

 

 

1.280% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-20

 

-19 

 

-25 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.7% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

4.97M

 

4.99M 

 

4.94M 

   

 

eurgbp 0522bns

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

May 23

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.50

50.40

 

08:00

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.8

44.4

 

08:30

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

48.5

48.1

 

09:00

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

47.0

46.7

 

09:30

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ) 

1.7%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

0.6%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

345K

360K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3000K

3009K

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales 

425K

417K

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

May 23 02:30 Australia

May 23 05:35 Japan

May 23 10:30 Spain

May 23 11:03 Sweden

May 23 18:00 Canada

May 23 19:00 US

May 24 12:10 UK

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