Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8580 gaining 63 pips as the euro gained on sentiment while the pound declined on poor retail
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8580 gaining 63 pips as the euro gained on sentiment while the pound declined on poor retail sales and disappointment in the MPC minutes. At the same time the IMF is aggressively lobbying the UK government to turn from austerity to growth. Sterling tumbled following minutes released by the Bank of England and disappointing retail sales, as the IMF warned the U.K. is at risk of “permanent damage” if its growth remains persistently slow. Sterling fell by as much as 0.5 percent as retail sales missed expectations, with total food sales plunging 4.1 percent – the largest monthly fall in almost two years.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England also surprised markets with the minutes from its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which revealed that outgoing Governor Mervyn King continued to vote in favour of more quantitative easing (QE), despite stronger gross domestic product (GDP) data and inflation falling to 2.4 percent in April, its biggest fall in a year.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data May 22, 2013 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
May 22 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.76T |
|
-0.61T |
|
-0.92T |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
-7.00% |
|
|
|
-5.10% |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
|
0.10% |
|
0.10% |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
MPC Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-1.3% |
|
0.0% |
|
-0.6% |
||
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
2.0% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German 10-Year Bund Auction |
1.410% |
|
|
|
1.280% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-20 |
|
-19 |
|
-25 |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.7% |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.7% |
||
|
|
USD |
|
|
Existing Home Sales |
4.97M |
|
4.99M |
|
4.94M |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
May 23 |
02:45 |
CNY |
50.50 |
50.40 |
|
|
08:00 |
EUR |
44.8 |
44.4 |
|
|
08:30 |
EUR |
48.5 |
48.1 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
47.0 |
46.7 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
345K |
360K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
3000K |
3009K |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
425K |
417K |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 23 02:30 Australia
May 23 05:35 Japan
May 23 10:30 Spain
May 23 11:03 Sweden
May 23 18:00 Canada
May 23 19:00 US
May 24 12:10 UK