EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 10, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Nov 9, 2015, 13:03 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP gained 9 points recovering a bit from Friday’s volatility sparked by the US jobs report and Thursday’s shocker

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 10, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP gained 9 points recovering a bit from Friday’s volatility sparked by the US jobs report and Thursday’s shocker from the Bank of England. The pair is holding at 0.7143. The pound hit a one-month low against the dollar and also fell against the euro on Friday, as investors cut bets that favored the pound after the Bank of England chief Mark Carney suggested he was in no hurry to raise interest rates.

Sterling had risen to a 10-week high on a trade-weighted basket of currencies this week on expectations that the first UK rate rise since the financial crisis would come in the third quarter of 2016. But after a dovish set of minutes from the BoE last policy meeting and an Inflation Report that said inflation would stay subdued, investors have pushed back those expectations to the last quarter of 2016.

There was little reaction to British data on Friday which showed manufacturing output rising in September at the fastest pace in more than a year while the trade deficit narrowed more than expected.

With EUR/USD back on the decline, and EUR/GBP remaining near its yearly lows despite the BoE’s dovish shocker on Thursday, the European Central Bank is probably pleased with recent developments along the FX front: the Euro will not be a strong headwind to inflation, assuaging nascent concerns after the late-summer rally. Lately eurozone economic data has been on the upswing recently.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
EUR	German Trade Balance (Sep)		20.0B	19.6B
EUR	Eurogroup Meetings
USD	FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November10, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Current Account n.s.a. (Sep)		2.235T	1.653T
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Oct)			2.6%
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Sep)			2.9%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Oct)			5
CNY	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		-0.2%	0.1%
CNY	CPI (YoY) (Oct)		1.5%	1.6%
CNY	PPI (YoY) (Oct)		-5.8%	-5.9%
EUR	EU Finance Ministers Meeting
USD	Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct)		-0.2%	-0.7%
USD	Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct)		-0.1%	-0.1%