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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 16, 2015, 11:43 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP dipped 11 points as the euro got hit hard after France closed its borders after Friday night’s massive terror

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp monday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP dipped 11 points as the euro got hit hard after France closed its borders after Friday night’s massive terror attacks. The pound declined a bit in sympathy to the problems. The European Central Bank is grappling with weak prices pressures in the 19-nation bloc. ECB President Mario Draghi has all but promised to ease monetary policy in December. The figures come just three days after data showed euro-area growth slowed in the third quarter. Even before the attacks, the euro had been under pressure from expectations the ECB will step up monetary easing next month, possibly cutting interest rates deeper into negative levels and buying more assets under its quantitative easing program.

The euro hit a 6 1/2-month low against the yen and was pinned down near 7-month troughs against the dollar on Monday after the deadly attacks in Paris led to a bout of global risk aversion and kept investors cautious on the common currency.

The euro fell to a three-month low against the British pound as the single currency came under pressure after the deadly attacks in Paris late last week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Core Retail Sales (QoQ)

1.0%

1.4%

0.0%

   

  NZD

 

Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)

1.6%

1.3%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

-0.8%

-0.2%

-1.2%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

1.1%

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

eurgbp

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  GBP

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

  GBP

 

PPI Input (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

0.6%

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Current Conditions

 

55.5

55.2

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

6.0

1.9

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

1.9%

1.9%

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

  USD

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

-0.2%

 

  USD

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

 

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