EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 24 points as the euro gained on better than expected German Ifo data while meeting its GDP target. The strength in the euro was also supported by a dip in the pound. The pair is at 0.7046. This week’s highlight will be George Osbornes Statement and Budget. On Sunday Osborne said he’d agreed the full package of cuts with all departments. He’d already signed up most secretaries of state, with hold-outs such as the Foreign Office now on board, having agreed to cuts that will total £20bn, or 25 per cent of spending, by 2020. That’s a cut of around seven per cent each year.

Where specifically the scythe will fall is less clear. Particularly interesting will be the Home Office, where Teresa May is thought to have secured a 30 per cent increase in spending on counter-terrorism activities, but accepted another hit to the police budget. Osborne refused to rule out cuts to police numbers.

With the testimony from the heads of the British finance ministry and Bank of England already being under investors’ scrutiny in order to gain a sense of direction, Sterling fringed down against both euro and dollar. The pound is riding high for the third consecutive month against the euro amid expectations of the policy turning further benign in Britain’s main trading partner, the eurozone, says a Reuters report.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 25, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction