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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 26, 2015, 10:31 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP added 18 points while both currencies were weak today and US markets are closed for the holiday. The pair is

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast

eurgbp thursday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 18 points while both currencies were weak today and US markets are closed for the holiday. The pair is trading at 0.7040. The market’s near-term focus is on the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Dec. 3. Because the euro has factored in the prospect of the ECB’s additional easing steps next week, the pair could rise if the ECB underwhelms market participants. The ECB has signaled its readiness to expand its bond purchase program to combat weak inflation. The euro has lost 4% against the dollar over the past month. At its meeting next week the ECB will ease policy in some way or another, according to economists polled by Reuters, many of whom say the bank cannot pull back now after signaling its intentions so clearly over the past month.

The pound edged down against the euro after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney failed to give any indication that interest rates might climb faster than markets expect. “The question in my mind is when the appropriate time for interest rates to increase is, and that is strongly consistent with the strength of the domestic economy,” Carney told the Treasury Select Committee, an influential group of MPs.

The Bank’s monetary policy committee has said that when rates do start to go up, it will remain cautious on the pace of hikes.

“There is less margin for error given the weight of household debt in this country,” Carney said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

-963M

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

-3,240M

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

-9.2%

-3.0%

-4.4%

   

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate

 

9.2

9.4

   

 

eurgbp

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 27, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Oct)

 

1.1%

-1.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.4%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Oct)

 

1.24

1.24

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)

 

0.5%

0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

4.2%

3.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 

 

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

2.3%

2.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.5%

0.5%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

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