EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 6, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP gained 9 points to trade at 0.7856 as the pounds weakness exceeded that of the euro. British interest rates

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 6, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP gained 9 points to trade at 0.7856 as the pounds weakness exceeded that of the euro. British interest rates will rise from record lows early next year as the UK economic recovery outpaces Europe’s and inflation picks up, a Reuters poll of economists’ forecasts on Wednesday. Although Bank of England Governor Mark Carney recently said a hike is getting nearer, only six of 60 economists polled this week expect it to happen this year, 48 forecast it in the first quarter of next year. Six see it coming later.

The unemployment rate in the single currency has shot up since 2008 and now stands at 11.5% – almost double the rates in Britain and the US. Mr Draghi said rising popular frustration was natural given the weak economic performance of the eurozone and spiking joblessness since the global financial crisis began in 2008.

“It’s very understandable that people are euro skeptical because things are not going well” Draghi said, speaking at a press conference in Naples. “In this part of the world things are not going well because you have pervasive unemployment and you have very weak economic activity with… in some countries, a recession that seems to never end”.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	HIA New Home Sales	3.3%		-5.7%
CNY	Non-Manufacturing PMI	54.0		54.4
EUR	Spanish Services PMI	55.8	57.1	58.1
EUR	Italian Services PMI	48.8	49.6	49.8
EUR	French Services PMI	48.4	49.4	49.4
EUR	German Services PMI	55.7	55.4	55.4
EUR	Services PMI (Sep)	52.4	52.8	52.8
GBP	Services PMI (Sep)	58.7	59.1	60.5
EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.2%	0.1%	-0.4%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)		215K	142K
USD	Private Nonfarm		210K	134K
USD	Trade Balance (Aug)		-40.90B	-40.60B
USD	Unemployment Rate		6.1%	6.1%