Advertisement
Advertisement
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2014 Forecast
By:
Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP gained 30 points as the euro was just less weak than the pound with both currencies easing against the US dollar
The EUR/GBP gained 30 points as the euro was just less weak than the pound with both currencies easing against the US dollar today. The pair is trading at 0.7935. The euro has struggled for most of this week following comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi at the weekend, who said the central bank would use “all the available instruments” to ward off the threat of deflation.
That had helped widen interest rate differentials in favor of sterling fixed-income assets, which in turn has pushed up the pound. “The idea that the BoE is going to be the first major central bank to hike probably means that any lowering in the rates in the euro area plays positive for sterling,” said Paul Robson, a currency strategist at RBS.
Sterling fell against both the euro and the dollar on Tuesday, coming under pressure as support for Scottish independence rose dramatically with less than three weeks to go before a referendum that poses considerable risk for the currency.
A poll for the Sun and the Times newspapers showed support for the pro-independence “Yes” campaign had risen to 47 per cent, a four point gain since mid-August and up eight points since the start of the month.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
2.5% |
1.5% |
-3.8% |
|
|
AUD |
Current Account |
-13.7B |
-14.0B |
-7.8B |
|
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
8.1K |
26.0K |
-29.8K |
|
|
GBP |
Construction PMI |
64.0 |
61.4 |
62.4 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
56.8 |
57.1 |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
||||
|
Wednesday, September 3 |
|||||||
|
|
CNY |
Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
54.2 |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
GDP (YoY) |
|
3.0% |
3.5% |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
GDP (QoQ) |
|
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
|
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Services PMI |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian Services PMI |
|
52.0 |
52.8 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
|
51.1 |
51.1 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
|
56.4 |
56.4 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
|
53.5 |
53.5 |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
|
58.5 |
59.1 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
-0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
Factory Orders (MoM) |
|
11.0% |
1.1% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
Beige Book |
|
|
|
||
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 03 09:03 Sweden Bond auction
Sep 03 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Sep 04 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction
Sep 04 14:20 Sweden Announces details of I/L bond auction on Sep 11
Sep 04 15:00 US Announces details 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Sep
Sep 05 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Sep 10
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Advertisement