Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7760 gaining 0.86% as the euro soared. The strength of the euro against the dollar is
The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7760 gaining 0.86% as the euro soared. The strength of the euro against the dollar is a vote of lack of confidence in the US or a vote of confidence in the EMU. In fact, the situation in Europe is deteriorating despite the euro’s strength. EC President Tusk says that next six weeks are critical for the refugee problem and Brexit negotiations. This poses existential challenges. In addition, the market developments are fragmenting the European capital markets again. In addition, on top of the North-South divide, Central Europe is diverging from Eastern Europe.
European banks are among the weakest sectors in the equity markets. Partly this reflects another element of divergence. Regarding the disposal NPLs and provisioning for non-performing assets, the US has done a far superior job compared to Europe. European capitalism remains bank-centric, and this remains an obstacle for EMU. The political elite have demanded greater reform for labor than for capital. This is coming back to bite.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | ||||
Monday, February 15, 2016 | ||||||||
United States – Presidents’ Day | ||||||||
Canada – Family Day | ||||||||
CNY | Trade Balance (Jan) | 58.85B | 60.09B | |||||
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 | ||||||||
GBP | CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 0.3% | 0.2% | |||||
EUR | German ZEW Economic | 3.2 | 10.2 | |||||
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 | ||||||||
GBP | Average Earnings Index | 1.9% | 2.0% | |||||
GBP | Claimant Count Change (Jan) | -3.0K | -4.3K | |||||
USD | Building Permits (Jan) | 1.200M | 1.204M | |||||
USD | PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
Thursday, February 18, 2016 | ||||||||
AUD | Employment Change (Jan) | 15.0K | -1.0K | |||||
CNY | CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.9% | 1.6% | |||||
USD | Philadelphia Fed | -2.8 | -3.5 | |||||
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.754M | ||||||
Friday, February 19, 2016 | ||||||||
GBP | Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | 0.8% | -1.0% | |||||
USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||
CAD | Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | -0.4% | |||||
CAD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.5% | 1.1% |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Feb 15 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Feb 17
Feb 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Feb 17 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Feb 17 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund
Feb 17 11:30 UK New Jul 2026 Gilt auction
Feb 18 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction
Feb 18 11:50 France Holds bond auction
Feb 18 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 25
Feb 19 11:10 Italy Details of BTP€i/Zero-coupon auction