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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 18 – 22, 2013 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8611 climbing from the opening on Monday at 0.8460 as the pound weakened more than the
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8611 climbing from the opening on Monday at 0.8460 as the pound weakened more than the euro. Sterling may need to weaken further in order to rebalance Britain’s economy, senior Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said on Saturday, as finance ministers met in Moscow to discuss exchange rates.
Britain’s economy has been stagnant for the past two years and efforts to focus more on exports have had little effect, despite a 25 per cent depreciation of the country’s currency between 2007 and 2008, Mr. Weale said.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Feb 15, 2013 |
0.8611 |
0.8622 |
0.8633 |
0.8574 |
-0.13% |
|
Feb 14, 2013 |
0.8622 |
0.8656 |
0.8666 |
0.8585 |
-0.39% |
|
Feb 13, 2013 |
0.8656 |
0.8582 |
0.8684 |
0.8572 |
0.86% |
|
Feb 12, 2013 |
0.8582 |
0.8560 |
0.8631 |
0.8541 |
0.26% |
|
Feb 11, 2013 |
0.8560 |
0.8460 |
0.8574 |
0.8458 |
1.18% |
The euro may react to newsflow from the G20 summit. A number of telling business survey indicators will be reported next week in Europe. Among them are the ZEW (February 19th), PMI (21st) and Ifo (22nd) indexes for February. Improving business sentiment in recent months has strengthened the assertion that the -0.6% q/q contraction in euro area GDP in the fourth quarter was the low point of the current economic cycle, and that a gradual recovery is beginning to take hold. After a dovish speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi two weeks ago, any renewing weakness in business sentiment (due to persistent euro strength, for instance) is likely to fuel rate cut expectations. The German ZEW index jumped up more than 20 points over the last two months, reaching 31, above its long term average at around 15.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of February 11 – 15 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 12 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-4% |
-2% |
-1% |
|
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.3% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
1.3% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
3.0B |
-2.0B |
-0.3B |
|
Feb. 13 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.2% |
-0.7% |
|
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
2.046% |
1.863% |
|
|
Feb. 14 |
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.6% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.6% |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
341K |
360K |
368K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3114K |
3200K |
3244K |
|
Feb. 15 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-0.6% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
10.0 |
-2.0 |
-7.8 |
|
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
64.2B |
34.3B |
52.4B |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
76.3 |
74.8 |
73.8 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 19 |
10:00 |
EUR |
35.0 |
31.5 |
|
|
Feb. 20 |
07:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
0.3% |
||
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-5.0K |
-12.1K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.918M |
0.909M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.925M |
0.954M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.4% |
1.3% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.7% |
2.0% |
|
|
Feb. 21 |
07:58 |
EUR |
43.8 |
42.9 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
50.5 |
49.8 |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-15 |
-20 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
4.90M |
4.94M |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
1.0 |
-5.8 |
|
|
Feb. 22 |
07:00 |
EUR |
-0.6% |
||
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
0.1% |
||
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
105.0 |
104.2 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.5 |
108.0 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
101.3 |
100.5 |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Feb 19 01:30 Japan
Feb 19 09:30 Spain
Feb 20 10:10 Sweden
Feb 20 10:30 Germany
Feb 20 10:30 Portugal
Feb 21 01:30 Japan
Feb 21 09:30 Spain
Feb 21 09:50 France
Feb 21 10:30 UK
Feb 21 10:50 France
Feb 21 16:30 Italy
Feb 21 16:00 US
Feb 21 18:00 US
Feb 22 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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