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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 4 – 8, 2013, Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.8692 easing off of the weekly high of 0.8717. The euro gained momentum this week on
The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.8692 easing off of the weekly high of 0.8717. The euro gained momentum this week on positive sentiment. The eurozone will also be a focal point. The ECB rate announcement on Thursday and the ensuing press conference hosted by President Mario Draghi will likely carry few new developments. The ECB has already announced that an additional €3.5 billion in LTRO proceeds will be repaid by banks on Wednesday following €137 billion having been repaid this past week out of what will be a remaining total of €348.5 billion. The EU Leaders Summit on Thursday and Friday will be focused upon achieving an EU budget for 2014-20 and the focus upon securing trade pacts with the US, Canada and Japan. Recall that the budget talks collapsed in disarray at a Summit last November.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Feb 01, 2013 |
0.8692 |
0.8578 |
0.8717 |
0.8572 |
1.33% |
|
Jan 31, 2013 |
0.8578 |
0.8590 |
0.8592 |
0.8554 |
-0.14% |
|
Jan 30, 2013 |
0.8590 |
0.8567 |
0.8606 |
0.8560 |
0.28% |
|
Jan 29, 2013 |
0.8566 |
0.8567 |
0.8570 |
0.8528 |
-0.01% |
|
Jan 28, 2013 |
0.8567 |
0.8536 |
0.8586 |
0.8530 |
0.36% |
UK data risk will also be in play next week as industrial production is expected to bounce higher at year-end, the trade deficit is expected to narrow, and the pace of contraction in the services PMI is expected to lessen. That will help inform the debate over whether the UK faces the so called ‘triple dip’ with a 2013Q1 GDP contraction alongside the monthly GDP estimate from the UK National Institute of Economic & Social Research for January.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of January 28 – February 1 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jan. 28 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.3% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
4.6% |
1.8% |
0.7% |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-4.3% |
0.3% |
1.6% |
|
Jan. 29 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.8 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
|
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
58.6 |
64.0 |
66.7 |
|
Jan. 30 |
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
1.05 |
1.16 |
1.29 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
4.17% |
4.48% |
|
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
192K |
165K |
185K |
|
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
|
|
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
Jan. 31 |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
-16K |
8K |
-2K |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
0.9% |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
2.0% |
2.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
368K |
350K |
330K |
|
|
USD |
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3197K |
3176K |
3175K |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
55.6 |
50.5 |
50.0 |
|
Feb. 01 |
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.40 |
50.90 |
50.60 |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
52.30 |
52.10 |
51.90 |
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
52.5 |
50.5 |
49.2 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
47.80 |
47.60 |
46.70 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
42.9 |
42.9 |
42.9 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
49.8 |
48.8 |
48.8 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
47.9 |
47.5 |
47.5 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.8 |
51.0 |
51.2 |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
157K |
160K |
196K |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
166K |
165K |
202K |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
73.8 |
71.5 |
71.3 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
53.1 |
50.6 |
50.2 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 05 |
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
55.2 |
56.1 |
|
|
Feb. 06 |
11:00 |
EUR |
0.9% |
-1.8% |
|
|
Feb. 07 |
06:45 |
CHF |
-14 |
-17 |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.9% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-8.9B |
-9.2B |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.1% |
-2.4% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-1.2% |
2.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
3.0% |
-1.9% |
|
|
Feb. 08 |
05:30 |
CNY |
2.0% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
-1.6% |
-1.9% |
|
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
1.0% |
0.8% |
|
|
|
08:15 |
CHF |
2.0% |
2.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-46.0B |
-48.7B |
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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