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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 19 – 23, 2012, Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.8024 climbing back from the 79.00 level, as the euro regained strength and weakness
The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.8024 climbing back from the 79.00 level, as the euro regained strength and weakness in the UK after BoE Governor Kings, negative remarks and the BoE inflation report released at the end of the week.
While the euro fell into a technical recession, and Greece and Spain continue to drag down the economy.
Retail sales in the UK tanked, supporting the belief that the GDP report which showed expansion in the UK was a fluke supported by the Olympics and the Queens Jubilee.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Nov 16, 2012 |
0.8024 |
0.8056 |
0.8058 |
0.8010 |
-0.41% |
|
Nov 15, 2012 |
0.8057 |
0.8037 |
0.8064 |
0.8030 |
0.25% |
|
Nov 14, 2012 |
0.8037 |
0.8006 |
0.8050 |
0.8001 |
0.39% |
|
Nov 13, 2012 |
0.8006 |
0.8004 |
0.8008 |
0.7970 |
0.02% |
|
Nov 12, 2012 |
0.8004 |
0.8004 |
0.8020 |
0.7988 |
0.00% |
After several negative eco reports from Germany this week markets will see German Ifo this week. In October the German Ifo index dropped sharply to 100, below its long term average of 102 on the back of a deep fall in the current assessment component. The only source of comfort in this report was the stabilization in the expectations component, at 93.2. For the November survey though, analysts assess that the risk remains on the downside, with the current component expected to move further south to around 106. We would look for some improvement in the expectations component, however, the renewing weakness in the expectations index of the ZEW survey (after a two-month improvement) suggests that gains in the Ifo could be limited.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of November 12 –16, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Nov. 13 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-7% |
-15% |
-14% |
|
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.3% |
2.2% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-15.7 |
-9.8 |
-11.5 |
|
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-2.6 |
0.2 |
-1.4 |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-120.0B |
-114.0B |
75.0B |
|
Nov. 14 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.8% |
1.9% |
1.7% |
|
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
10.1K |
-5.1K |
0.8K |
|
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-2.5% |
-1.9% |
0.9% |
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
1.3% |
|
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
2.3% |
2.6% |
2.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.5% |
2.3% |
|
Nov. 15 |
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.8% |
-0.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.6% |
1.7% |
2.4% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
439K |
375K |
361K |
|
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
-5.2 |
-6.7 |
-6.2 |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3334K |
3210K |
3163K |
|
|
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.1% |
2.0% |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
-10.7 |
2.0 |
5.7 |
|
Nov. 16 |
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
3.3B |
75.0B |
90.3B |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.4% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Nov. 19 |
15:00 |
USD |
4.75M |
4.75M |
|
|
Nov. 20 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.865M |
0.890M |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.840M |
0.872M |
||
|
Nov. 21 |
13:30 |
USD |
400K |
439K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
3338K |
3334K |
||
|
14:55 |
USD |
84.5 |
84.9 |
||
|
Nov. 22 |
01:45 |
CNY |
49.50 |
||
|
07:58 |
EUR |
43.7 |
|||
|
08:28 |
EUR |
46.0 |
|||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-19 |
-23 |
||
|
Nov. 23 |
07:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
||
|
07:00 |
EUR |
0.4% |
|||
|
09:00 |
EUR |
99.5 |
100.0 |
||
|
09:00 |
EUR |
106.3 |
107.3 |
||
|
09:00 |
EUR |
93.2 |
93.2 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 19 10:10 Norway
Nov 20 09:30 Spain
Nov 20 10:10 Greece
Nov 20 10:30 UK
Nov 21 10:30 Germany
Nov 21 15:10 Sweden
Nov 21 16:00 US
Nov 21 18:00 US
Nov 22 09:30 Spain
Nov 22 10:10 Sweden
Nov 23 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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