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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 20-24, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7929 holding within its trading range just under the 80 level.  Europe’s eventual

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 20-24, 2014 Forecast
EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 20-24, 2014 Forecast
EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 20-24, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7929 holding within its trading range just under the 80 level.  Europe’s eventual recovery, like that of the US, may depend on an asset-buying program similar to the Fed’s by the European Central Bank. ECB president Mario Draghi famously promised in 2012 to do “whatever it takes” to save the eurozone and is considering ramping up existing quantitative easing programs. However, unless this new money trickles quickly down to consumers and small businesses, as it appears to have done in the US, restarting growth in Europe could take years. The slow pace of the European recovery was weighing on the mind of IMF managing director Christine Lagarde last weekend when she downgraded global growth forecasts for the third time this year.

Sterling fell to a one-month low against the euro on Wednesday, but recovered to trade slightly higher at 80 pence per euro on Thursday. Wage data released on Wednesday, showed earnings were still lagging inflation. The Bank of England (BoE) has said that any rise in interest rates from their historic lows will be dependent on economic data, especially wage growth.

The UK will still be the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year; but then, it would also be erroneous to presume that UK interest rates will be rising come what may.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011

Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

 

EURGBP(60 minutes)20141018093159

Economic Highlights of the coming week:

Day

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Tuesday, October 21

 

  CNY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

1.8%

2.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)

 

7.2%

7.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)

 

7.5%

6.9%

 

 

  USD

 

Existing Home Sales (Sep)

 

5.10M

5.05M

 

Wednesday, October 22

 

  AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q3)

 

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

 

 

-0.6%

 

 

  CAD

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

1.00%

 

Thursday, October 23

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

 

 

50.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

 

49.5

49.9

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

Friday, October 24

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)

 

3.0%

3.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

0.7%

0.9%

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Sep)

 

470K

504K

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Bond auction

Oct 21 11:00 UK Auctions 2.75% 2024 Gilt

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn Aug 2046 Bund auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30 & 29

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

 

 

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