Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7929 holding within its trading range just under the 80 level. Europe’s eventual
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7929 holding within its trading range just under the 80 level. Europe’s eventual recovery, like that of the US, may depend on an asset-buying program similar to the Fed’s by the European Central Bank. ECB president Mario Draghi famously promised in 2012 to do “whatever it takes” to save the eurozone and is considering ramping up existing quantitative easing programs. However, unless this new money trickles quickly down to consumers and small businesses, as it appears to have done in the US, restarting growth in Europe could take years. The slow pace of the European recovery was weighing on the mind of IMF managing director Christine Lagarde last weekend when she downgraded global growth forecasts for the third time this year.
Sterling fell to a one-month low against the euro on Wednesday, but recovered to trade slightly higher at 80 pence per euro on Thursday. Wage data released on Wednesday, showed earnings were still lagging inflation. The Bank of England (BoE) has said that any rise in interest rates from their historic lows will be dependent on economic data, especially wage growth.
The UK will still be the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year; but then, it would also be erroneous to presume that UK interest rates will be rising come what may.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011
Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week:
Day |
Cur. |
Imp. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Tuesday, October 21 |
|||||||
|
CNY |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.8% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
CNY |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
7.2% |
7.5% |
|
|
|
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) |
|
7.5% |
6.9% |
|
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales (Sep) |
|
5.10M |
5.05M |
|
|
Wednesday, October 22 |
|||||||
|
AUD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) |
|
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
|
1.00% |
|
|
Thursday, October 23 |
|||||||
|
CNY |
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Oct) |
|
|
50.2 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
|
49.5 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) |
|
-0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
Friday, October 24 |
|||||||
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
3.0% |
3.2% |
|
|
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales (Sep) |
|
470K |
504K |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction
Oct 21 11:00 Norway Bond auction
Oct 21 11:00 UK Auctions 2.75% 2024 Gilt
Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn Aug 2046 Bund auction
Oct 23 11:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30 & 29
Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28
Oct 23 19:00 US 30Y TIPS auction
Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29