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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 30, 2015, 05:51 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY dipped 7 points to trade at 129.95 after a rash of Japanese data and a speech from Governor Kuroda.  Against the

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY dipped 7 points to trade at 129.95 after a rash of Japanese data and a speech from Governor Kuroda.  Against the yen, the euro was down about 0.2 percent at 129.90, not far from a seven-month trough of 129.67 set on Friday.

Soft inflation readings out of the euro zone on Monday and Tuesday could strengthen expectations for ECB action at its Dec. 3 policy review, but whatever the outcome, an easing appeared to be fully factored in.

“The ECB is likely to announce more monetary stimulus at their policy meeting on Thursday, which should see EUR/USD end the week lower and generate a drag on AUD/USD,” said Richard Grace, chief currency and rates strategist at Commonwealth Bank.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve is widely tipped to hike U.S. interest rates at its mid-December policy meeting, though Fed Chair Janet Yellen could use a speech on Wednesday to steer markets either way.

The euro retreated against the dollar and the yen as traders’ expectations remained high for a European Central Bank decision for additional stimulus at its policy meeting on Thursday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Oct)

5.1%

3.0%

-5.8%

   

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)  

1.4%

1.9%

1.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

1.8%

0.8%

-0.2%

 

 

  NZD

 

ANZ Business Confidence (Nov)

14.6%

15.0%

10.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

1.3%

1.0%

-0.5%

   

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct)

0.7%

0.6%

0.8%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

eurjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

AIG Manufacturing Index (Nov)

 

 

50.2

 

 

  JPY

 

Capital Spending (YoY) (Q3)

 

 

5.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)

 

-2.3%

2.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Current Account (Q3)

 

-16.5B

-19.0B

 

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

49.8

49.8

 

 

  CNY

 

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

53.1

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

48.3

48.3

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.6

52.6

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change

 

-5K

-5K

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

6.4%

6.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.8

52.8

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

54.0

55.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 

10.8%

10.8%

 

 

  USD

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

52.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing Employment

 

48.5

47.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

50.4

50.1

 

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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