Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY gained 37 points as the Japanese yen tumbled this morning after a slew of data disappointed traders, most of all
The EUR/JPY gained 37 points as the Japanese yen tumbled this morning after a slew of data disappointed traders, most of all was the miss by the CGPI which is not supportive of the Bank of Japan’s stimulus package to push up inflation. Machinery orders printed better than expected as exports are in strong demand due to the weak currency. For the euro side of the equation, there’s a tremendous risk in the euro CPI. Should that disappoint today, that puts the ECB in an awkward position. The yen has fallen 13.7 percent in the past year, the biggest loss after the Aussie’s 14.8 percent drop, according to Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-nation currencies. The euro strengthened 7.3 percent, while the dollar advanced 4.4 percent.
Japan’s currency plunged in 2013 after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began an economic strategy of fiscal spending, monetary easing and growth initiatives. The Bank of Japan buys more than 7 trillion yen ($66.7 billion) of government bonds every month in its bid to stoke inflation of 2 percent. It offered to buy 700 billion yen of the debt from market today. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today the central bank will continue easing until the price target is stable and the stimulus program is having the intended impact.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Economic Data January 16, 2014 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Jan. 16 |
|
JPY |
|
|
CGPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
|
2.6% |
|
2.7% |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Core Machinery Orders (MoM) |
9.3% |
|
1.2% |
|
0.6% |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
0.8% |
|
-0.9% |
||
|
|
JPY |
|
|
CGPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Core Machinery Orders (YoY) |
16.6% |
|
11.7% |
|
17.8% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
RICS House Price Balance |
56% |
|
60% |
|
58% |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Employment Change |
-22.6K |
|
7.5K |
|
15.4K |
||
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
5.8% |
|
5.8% |
|
5.8% |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Participation Rate |
64.6% |
|
64.8% |
|
64.8% |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Full Employment Change |
-31.6K |
|
|
|
10.5K |
||
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese FDI |
5.30% |
|
|
|
5.50% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Jan. 17 |
13:30 |
USD |
1.007M |
1.017M |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.992M |
1.091M |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-2.1% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
22.7% |
||
|
14:15 |
USD |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
84.0 |
82.5 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Jan 20 10:00 Slovakia
Jan 20 11:00 Belgium
Jan 21 01:30 Japan
Jan 21 09:30 Spain
Jan 22 10:30 Germany
Jan 23 01:30 Japan
Jan 23 10:03 Sweden
Jan 23 10:30 UK
Jan 23 11:00 France
Jan 23 16:00 US
Jan 23 16:30 Italy
Jan 23 18:00 US
Jan 24 16:30 Italy