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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis January 17, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 22, 2015, 22:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY gained 37 points as the Japanese yen tumbled this morning after a slew of data disappointed traders, most of all

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis January 17, 2014 Forecast

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis January 17, 2014 Forecast
EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis January 17, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY gained 37 points as the Japanese yen tumbled this morning after a slew of data disappointed traders, most of all was the miss by the CGPI which is not supportive of the Bank of Japan’s stimulus package to push up inflation. Machinery orders printed better than expected as exports are in strong demand due to the weak currency. For the euro side of the equation, there’s a tremendous risk in the euro CPI. Should that disappoint today, that puts the ECB in an awkward position. The yen has fallen 13.7 percent in the past year, the biggest loss after the Aussie’s 14.8 percent drop, according to Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-nation currencies. The euro strengthened 7.3 percent, while the dollar advanced 4.4 percent.

Japan’s currency plunged in 2013 after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began an economic strategy of fiscal spending, monetary easing and growth initiatives. The Bank of Japan buys more than 7 trillion yen ($66.7 billion) of government bonds every month in its bid to stoke inflation of 2 percent. It offered to buy 700 billion yen of the debt from market today. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today the central bank will continue easing until the price target is stable and the stimulus program is having the intended impact.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Economic Data January 16, 2014 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jan. 16

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.6% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) 

9.3%

 

1.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.8% 

 

-0.9% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Core Machinery Orders (YoY) 

16.6%

 

11.7% 

 

17.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

56%

 

60% 

 

58% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

-22.6K

 

7.5K 

 

15.4K 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.8%

 

5.8% 

 

5.8% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Participation Rate 

64.6%

 

64.8% 

 

64.8% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Full Employment Change 

-31.6K

 

 

 

10.5K 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese FDI 

5.30%

 

 

 

5.50% 

   

 

EURJPY(60 minutes)20140116065543

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Jan. 17

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

1.007M

1.017M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.992M

1.091M

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits (MoM) 

 

-2.1%

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts (MoM) 

 

22.7%

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.3%

1.1%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

84.0

82.5

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jan 20 10:00 Slovakia

Jan 20 11:00 Belgium

Jan 21 01:30 Japan

Jan 21 09:30 Spain

Jan 22 10:30 Germany

Jan 23 01:30 Japan

Jan 23 10:03 Sweden

Jan 23 10:30 UK

Jan 23 11:00 France

Jan 23 16:00 US

Jan 23 16:30 Italy

Jan 23 18:00 US

Jan 24 16:30 Italy

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